Pick of the Day: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Alexander Zverev, Rolex Paris Masters

On Friday, November 1, we’ll see a big-time clash in the Rolex Paris Masters quarterfinals, as world No. 3 Alexander Zverev takes on Stefanos Tsitsipas. This matchup has been pretty one-sided, with Tsitsipas holding a 10-5 edge in 15 career matches. Despite that, the oddsmakers have Zverev as a big favorite, as the German has consistently played at a much higher level than Tsitsipas over the last two seasons.

But I think Tsitsipas has a better chance of winning this match than people think. And I’m rolling with the Greek star to at least win a set.

It’s just a little hard to ignore the type of aggressive, quick-strike tennis that Tsitsipas is capable of playing in these conditions. In the second and third sets of his match against Francisco Cerundolo on Thursday, Tsitsipas’ forehand Shot Quality was at a 9.3 and a 9.8, respectively (according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations). Tsitsipas’ forehand hasn’t been as big of a weapon in 2024 as it has been throughout his career, but he clearly found it on Thursday. When you combine that shot with his ability to rack up easy holds, it’s hard to imagine Zverev beating him in straight sets.

Zverev is obviously one of the best servers on the planet, so Tsitsipas’ mediocre return game will need to be a little better in order to hold on. But Zverev can also be a bit of a pusher, making his game an awkward fit in an indoor hard-court event. Tsitsipas would be wise to rip shots to Zverev’s forehand side. While Tsitsipas’ one-handed backhand is viewed as one of the weaker shots on tour, Zverev’s forehand is similarly targetable. That’s part of the reason Tsitsipas has enjoyed success in their head-to-head history.

Putting too much stock in a head-to-head series can be a mistake in any matchup. But one of Tsitsipas’ wins over Zverev came at this very tournament, as he earned a 7-6 (2), 6-4 win last year. Tsitsipas has now beaten Zverev in three of their last four matches, and the one loss came at United Cup. Also, Tsitsipas has won at least one set in seven of the last eight matches that these two have played, which is another reason it’s hard to envision Zverev getting through easily.

It just feels like the oddsmakers are expecting Tsitsipas to get back to playing like he did for most of this year, but the 26-year-old is clearly at a different level right now. He’s locked in and enjoying his time in Paris, and he should be confident that he can get the job done here.

Pick: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-165)