Taylor Fritz vs. Andrey Rublev, Mutua Madrid Open

Rublev is coming off a monumental win over Carlos Alcaraz, but the Russian now faces a player that has had his number in recent years.

ByZachary Cohen

Published May 03, 2024

Andrey Rublev points to "my emotional part" as key to dethroning Carlos Alcaraz in Madrid

On Friday, May 3, Taylor Fritz will battle Andrey Rublev in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Open. This isn’t a matchup that you might have expected when first looking at the draw, as this half of the bracket featured Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz. But this semifinal match has more starpower than the other, where Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jiri Lehecka are playing for the other spot in the final. That only adds to the intrigue of this match, as the winner here will be favored in the final.

There’s a lot on the line for these two, and I tend to think the American is in a pretty good spot here.

The last time these two players met, Fritz earned a 6-2, 7-6 (3) win over Rublev. That was a hard-court win at the Laver Cup in September, and it was Fritz’s fourth victory over Rublev in their last five encounters. Now, it should be noted that all of the victories came on hard courts, and Rublev earned a 5-7, 6-1, 6-3 win over Fritz when they met in Monte Carlo last year.

But Fritz is a different player in Madrid than he is in Monte Carlo. The altitude here makes things a lot easier on a power player, and that’s why the American has had so much success at this event in back-to-back years.

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Andre Agassi (2002) is the only other American man to reach the Madrid final, but the event was played on hard courts then.

This is also a matchup that really suits Fritz well when you break it down. Both of these players have serious power from the baseline, but the American has a much better backhand. And when he’s on his game, he has the ability to hold his own against Rublev from the forehand side.

Fritz is also the more reliable server, despite the fact that Rublev’s hold percentage is up at 90.9% in 2024. Rublev was below 85.0% on his serve in back-to-back years heading into this season, so this year’s number feels unsustainable. Also, Rublev is winning more of his second serve points than ever this year, which is a little lucky. But Fritz happens to be a player that can punish second serves.

All in all, it’s just hard not to like Fritz as a plus-money play, as these two are very level when it comes to talent and the American has the head-to-head edge. I firmly believe that if these two played 10 matches in Madrid, Fritz would win six of them, so this value is too hard to pass up.

Pick: Fritz ML (+134)

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