Pick of the Day: Taylor Fritz vs. Casper Ruud, US Open

On Sunday, September 1, Casper Ruud and Taylor Fritz will battle for a spot in the quarterfinals of the US Open. Despite the fact that Ruud is a three-time Grand Slam runner-up, and is four spots ahead of Fritz in the ATP rankings, the Norwegian is a huge underdog. Overall, it’s not that surprising that the oddsmakers view the American as a favorite. Fritz has looked great since the start of this tournament, his game translates perfectly to this surface and he’s going to have the whole crowd pulling for him. However, Ruud has largely proven that he is a better player than Fritz. That makes it hard to lay off Ruud getting 5.5 games, and I’m also going to sprinkle the moneyline at a nice price.

Fritz’s slight edge on this surface is hard to deny. The American has a career winning percentage of 60.1% on hard courts, and that number is up at 64.9% over the last 52 weeks. Meanwhile, Ruud’s career winning percentage on hard courts is 58.1%. But where things get interesting is that Ruud is 29-14 on this surface over the last 52 weeks. That’s a 67.4% winning percentage. The Norwegian is starting to win with regularity on these courts, and that shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. Ruud has worked hard to improve his serve and backhand, and he also plays more aggressive tennis than ever.

Ruud is also 14-7 at the US Open and has made it to the final of this event. Fritz is just 10-10 at this Slam, and his best result is a quarter-final appearance. A lot of people say that Americans have a home-court advantage in Flushing Meadows, but there’s also a lot of pressure on them to perform. That can lead to crippling nerves on the court. Ruud won't have to deal with that. He’s a proven performer at this level, and not much was expected of him coming into the tournament.

Ruud is also 2-0 against Fritz at the ATP level. One of those wins came at Roland Garros, and the other on indoor hard courts in 2022. Speedy conditions, like those in Queens, should have really favored Fritz, so you definitely can’t throw that performance out.

There’s a lot that Ruud can do to make Fritz uncomfortable, even on this surface. Ruud is really good about hitting his topspin forehand hard and deep in the court, allowing him to take control of points. Ruud is also constantly looking for ways to pounce on short balls, utilizing his elite footwork to set up good shots. Fritz might be a better overall talent, and definitely has more firepower, but he lacks Ruud’s polish. Ruud is also a little smarter when it comes to constructing points.

I don’t think Ruud’s recent form is as big of a problem as people think. The Norwegian had a few rough weeks heading into the US Open, but he was sick in Montreal and didn’t look like he had recovered in Cincinnati. But he has definitely flashed his elite level at times throughout this tournament. He has been a little more up and down than usual, but he had spurts against both Gael Monfils and Juncheng Shang in which he was brilliant.

Realistically, I can easily see this going Fritz’s way. But these odds are disrespectful to Ruud, and you’re going to win more often than not when you jump on bad numbers.

Pick: Ruud +5.5 Games (-143) & Ruud ML (+260 - smaller play)