Pick of the Day: Tomas Machac vs. Jannik Sinner, Shanghai

At the Rolex Shanghai Masters, world No. 1 Jannik Sinner will battle Tomas Machac for a spot in the final. Sinner is fresh off a 6-1, 6-4 win over Daniil Medvedev. It was a thorough beatdown that says a lot about Sinner’s current level—he also earned a 6-4, 7-6 (1) victory over Ben Shelton in the Round of 16.

Machac is also playing some fantastic tennis. The Czech beat Carlos Alcaraz 7-6 (5), 7-5 in the quarterfinals, and that was directly after a three-set win over Tommy Paul. However, Machac is playing a little out of his mind right now, while Sinner is doing what he has done all year. That said, the most likely scenario in this match is that Sinner will blast Machac off the court.

One of the things to be nervous about with Machac is that he’s hitting his forehand a lot better than usual this week. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Machac’s forehand shot quality is 9.1 this week, despite being just 7.4 for the season. The tour average is 7.5. So, a shot that is normally slightly below average has been elite in Shanghai. How long will that hold up?

Meanwhile, Sinner’s normal forehand shot quality is an 8.8, and he’s hitting it at a 9.2 in Shanghai. That means that Sinner should have the edge from the forehand side, or at the very least be able to match everything a red-hot Machac would be sending his way. On top of that, Sinner’s shot quality is higher on the backhand side, plus the advanced stats give him a big edge as a server and a returner.

It’s also a little hard to ignore that Machac’s hold percentage is just 78.9% this season. It takes a much bigger server than that to make Sinner uncomfortable. Over the last 52 weeks, only six players have a higher break percentage than Sinner’s 27.2%. Meanwhile, Sinner is holding at an ATP-best 91.0% over the last 52 weeks. That’s going to be difficult for an average returner like Machac to deal with.

There should be a lot more opportunities for Sinner to break in this match, and that’s a big part of the reason why I believe the score will end up lopsided. I also have some concerns about how Machac’s body will hold up this deep in a tournament that is being played in tough conditions. Machac has had some real trouble with cramping over the last two months.

It’s also hard to imagine Machac keeping things close against Sinner in the Italian’s ideal court conditions. Sinner is the best player in the world on quicker hard courts, and these courts in Shanghai certainly qualify. The same can also be said about the courts in Miami. And if you’re wondering why that’s significant, Sinner beat Machac 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinals of that 1000-level event in March. I can see this being a very similar result.

Pick: Under 21.5 Games (-136)