Pick of the Day: Tomas Machac vs. Matteo Arnaldi, Miami

On Tuesday, March 26, Tomas Machac faces Matteo Arnaldi in the Round of 16 at the Miami Open. This is a meeting between two young players that are quickly establishing themselves on tour. Machac isn’t quite as high as Arnaldi in the rankings, but he’s now 9-6 in his first full year at the ATP level. And he's already scored some big wins this season, including victories over Andrey Rublev and Andy Murray in this tournament alone. I expect him to keep it rolling with a win over Arnaldi.

While Machac is a little less proven than Arnaldi, the Czech already has a win over the Italian. These two met in Dubai qualifiers last year, when Machac beat Arnaldi 6-0, 6-1 in a little under an hour. It was a thorough beatdown from Machac, who might have a little too much firepower for the Italian. Both of these players are extremely sturdy from the baseline, but Machac’s ability to dial up the aggression is the big difference. The Czech can really rip shots from both wings, coming up with power that Arnaldi can’t consistently match. We saw a lot of that in Machac’s win over Murray last match, with the Czech absolutely redlining in the third set.

Machac is also a little better than Arnaldi as both a server and a returner. While Arnaldi holds at just under 80.0%, Machac is at 83.7% this season. He’s also breaking at 22.5% in 2024, with Arnaldi is down at 20.1%. These aren’t massive edges for the Czech, but they can make all the difference over the course of a three-setter.

All in all, this is just a difficult matchup for Arnaldi. The Italian is generally able to beat opponents with his sturdy all-around game, hoping to outlast the player on the other side of the net and avoid making costly mistakes. Arnaldi can occasionally ratchet things up from the forehand side, which is how he usually puts a stamp on points. But if he needs to do it too often to match Machac’s power, he’ll start hitting unforced errors himself. So, I’m backing the Czech in this match and I’m not thinking twice about it.

Pick: Machac ML (-120)