Pick of the Day: Tommy Paul vs. Hubert Hurkacz, Rome

Tommy Paul is coming off one of the biggest victories of his career, a 6-1, 6-4 win over Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. Paul was just 9-22 against Top 10 opponents heading into that match, and he was also on a three-match losing streak against Medvedev. Paul is likely feeling some serious relief after that performance. He’s probably feeling pretty good about his quarter-final matchup with Hubert Hurkacz, too. But the Pole has found an impressive gear in Rome, and it’s a little hard to picture Paul finding a way by him, as well.

Ultimately, I think that Hurkacz’s serve will be the difference, as is often the case in his matches. Paul is just 19-25 in clay-court matches at the ATP level, and his hold percentage is 76.0% in that span. Hurkacz, who has a 90.3% hold percentage this season, is holding at 86.0% on clay over the last 52 weeks.

Hurkacz has also been returning at a very high level in Rome thus far. According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Hurkacz’s 7.2 shot quality on return was the highest amongst all remaining players in the tournament heading into this round. On top of that, Hurkacz had the highest serve quality of all remaining players. Hurkacz is just putting his head down and blasting serves—but he’s also using the slower courts to put pressure on opponents when they’re serving. And if Hurkacz puts enough pressure on Paul, the American will eventually crack.

Overall, this should be a match in which Paul will have a significant advantage when it comes to longer rallies. But I’m just not sure that will matter if Hurkacz is hitting his spots as a server. We have seen a different version of Hurkacz throughout this clay-court season, and I like him to keep the momentum going with a win over Paul.

Pick: Hurkacz To Win (-145)