Pick of the Day: Tommy Paul vs. Jannik Sinner, US Open

If you’ve been watching Tennis Bets Live—which streams on YouTube, Facebook and X (and is also available as a podcast on Spotify and Apple Music)—you know that I have been calling for Jannik Sinner to have some trouble with Tommy Paul for the past week. Of course, Sinner has cruised through his draw thus far, and Paul has been far less convincing; the American's performance against Gabriel Diallo left a lot to be desired.

Still, Paul is going to have the New York crowd fired up against the world No. 1, and the adrenaline should help him quite a bit. Meanwhile, Sinner is going to  play the role of villain for the first time since his minor steroid scandal. All of that could add up to a competitive match, which is why I’m playing the Over on 3.5 sets.

I originally wanted to back Paul +2.5 sets, hoping to cash in even if he only grabs one. But the odds are much better to go Over 3.5 sets—and the reality is that the bets are very similar. The only difference is that I’d lose if Paul wins in straight sets, but I’d be stunned if that happens.

The raucous atmosphere isn’t the only reason to take this play. Paul also does a lot of things that can frustrate Sinner: most important, the ability to grind. The Italian is arguably the most talented player in the world, and he’s nearly unbeatable when he’s 100 percent fit. We saw that early in the year, with Sinner claiming his first ever Grand Slam title and then continuing to run through the tour in the following weeks. But Sinner has picked up some injuries and illnesses over the last couple of months, and there are question marks about where he is physically right now. Paul will help us all find out.

Sinner was able to win a Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, but he was consistently grabbing his hip and gasping for air in matches. The 23-year-old was able to get through it, but it was a best-of-three-set tournament. He has also been able to get by at the US Open, but that’s because he hasn’t faced anyone dangerous yet. That changes here. Paul is one of the best returners on the planet, so he’s going to consistently make Sinner work in his service games. Paul is also one of the fastest players on tour, and he uses his speed to cover the court at an elite level. When these two get into baseline exchanges, Paul is going to go for every ball and make Sinner play a lot more shots than he’s used to. So even if Paul doesn’t jump on one of the first two sets, he’ll be live to win the third, as he could very well suck the life out of Sinner.

Sinner will likely end up advancing in the end, which is why he’s as high as a -600 favorite at some sportsbooks. But I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to beat the brakes of Paul.

Pick: Over 3.5 Sets (-124)