Pick of the Day: Rafael Nadal vs. Milos Raonic, Indian Wells

One of the main storylines at the BNP Paribas Open is Rafael Nadal’s return to action. After having suffered an injury setback in January, Nadal missed out on the Australian Open. We didn’t see much of the 22-time Grand Slam champion until The Netflix Slam exhibition match against Carlos Alcaraz on March 3. Now, he is set to face Milos Raonic in his first real match in months. And while I’m not sure I expect the Spaniard to win, I do think we’ll see him play some competitive tennis.

Nadal looked sharper than expected against Alcaraz in Las Vegas. He doesn’t move nearly as well as he used to, but he still fights hard along the baseline. And he is still capable of hitting passing shots with the best of them—that isn’t going away anytime soon. With that in mind, I think he can get by Raonic in this match. His advantage in long rallies will be massive, and that should win out in the long run. However, Raonic’s serve makes it hard not to envision this being a lengthy match.

Raonic had to retire in the second set of his match against Jannik Sinner in Rotterdam a few weeks ago. That was a match in which Sinner needed a tiebreaker to win the opening set, and the Italian really had no answer for Raonic’s ability to hammer serves. That weapon is the reason Raonic got himself into the quarterfinals to begin with. The reality is that Raonic’s baseline play is worse than ever, and he is one of the slowest movers on tour. But as long as he continues to serve at a high level, he’ll keep himself in matches.

It’s hard to see this match not going to at least one tiebreaker, and it’ll be hard for the Over not to cash if it does. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Nadal edging Raonic in a three-set match, which would also mean good things for Over bettors. For what it’s worth, these two played a tight three-set match against one another in Indian Wells back in 2015, a 4-6, 7-6 (10), 7-5 win for Raonic. Perhaps they’ll turn back time and give us another classic.

Honestly, the only thing I’m worried about is whether both players can make it to the end. But the good news is that most sportsbooks will refund you if you take a total, and one of the players retires.

Pick: Over 22.5 Games (-125)