Roberto Carballes Baena vs. Dominik Koepfer, Madrid

On Thursday, April 25, Dominik Koepfer takes on Roberto Carballes Baena in first-round action at the Mutua Madrid Open. This might not seem like a must-watch match, but this is Carballes Baena’s home Masters event, and he'll have the crowd firmly in his corner. With that in mind, I see this as a great opportunity to back the Spaniard to win. And as one of the final matches on the schedule, it'll be a great way to cap—or save—your betting day.

Carballes Baena is just a better clay-court player than Koepfer, and the odds reflect that. The German comes into this match on a four-match losing streak, and three of those defeats were opening-round losses on clay. It’s not like Koepfer played the best of the best in those losses, either: Pedro Llamas Ruiz, Tallon Griekspoor and Cristian Garin were his opponents. Koepfer only won one set over those three matches, and he enters Madrid having not won a clay-court match since Roland Garros 2023.

Carballes Baena has won seven clay-court matches in 2024 alone. He has also won 78 clay-court matches over the course of his career. Koepfer has played in just 30 ATP-level matches on clay in his career. That’s a serious difference in experience for Koepfer to overcome.

At 5'11", Koepfer might not stand that tall, but he’s got a big serve and a live arm. That allows him to hold with relative ease when he’s landing his first serves, and it also gives him some punch from the baseline. The conditions in Madrid makes those weapons a little more useful than they’d be in a normal clay-court tournament—but the dirt still gets the best of power players, at least to some extent. That’s why Koepfer’s hold percentage on hard courts is 80.1% over the last 52 weeks, but it’s down at 67.6% in his four clay-court matches.

Carballes Baena should be able to get a read on Koepfer's serve over the course of this match. He has a 25.8% break percentage on clay in his career. He’ll also redirect Koepfer’s baseline power and ultimately find a way to swing longer rallies in his favor. Carballes Baena is very good when it comes to point construction on clay, and a lot of that has to do with him being a great defender, with the ability to transition from defense to offense.

Overall, I’m comfortable dealing with the juice in this match. Not only is Carballes Baena the better clay-court player, but he also will have the added adrenaline of playing in Spain. That makes it really hard to envision a scenario in which he loses.

Pick: Carballes Baena ML (-150)