Australian Open Men's Semifinal Betting Preview: How to attack Djokovic vs. Zverev and Shelton vs. Sinner

The men’s side of things at Roland Garros will be more interesting than usual this year. Most of the top players are dealing with some serious concerns heading into the tournament. Carlos Alcaraz, the betting favorite, has missed three of the four biggest clay-court events with a forearm injury. Novak Djokovic, the defending champion, is lacking in confidence—and is playing a 250-level event in Geneva to rectify that. Jannik Sinner, the Australian Open champion, has a hip injury that has the potential to linger if it’s not treated with rest.

With that in mind, betting this tournament should be a bit of a whirlwind—but we’re here to help. Keep reading for some players to watch when betting the futures market in Paris.

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Fliers

Taylor Fritz (70-1): Fritz probably isn’t capable of actually winning the title, but his extremely long odds mean you can probably get a good price on him to make a run to the semis, and hedge from there.

“Claylor” is 14-7 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks despite a career 58.0% winning percentage. The big difference now is that Fritz he is a lot more effective as a server, and he looks a lot less stiff moving on the surface. Fritz backed up a semifinal run in Madrid with a trip to the quarterfinals in Rome, which was especially impressive. He was expected to play well in Madrid's faster conditions, but doing it again in Rome means his game can be successful on the slower clay variants.

Perhaps Fritz doesn’t have the high upside that some of the other top players in the world, but the American’s high floor is enticing in a tournament with so many players dealing with injuries.

Karen Khachanov (95-1): Like Fritz, Khachanov is a player to keep in mind when looking for quarterfinals and semifinals futures. The 28-year-old is a two-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros, and he always seems to be in the mix late in tournaments.

With a very sturdy all-around game, the Russian can really serve, and he backs it up from the baseline. And it always feels like Khachanov is losing to the only the very best players in the world at majors. He's not the type to slip up against lesser opponents. Last year, Khachanov was bounced by Djokovic in a 4-6, 7-6, 6-2, 6-4 match. The Russian really brought it to the eventual champion, and that ability to play with some of the game’s elite hard to ignore. With that in mind, you can do worse than a long shot on Khachanov.

Nadal has kept on bringing the bright colors and eye-catching combos during what's expected to be his farewell season—seen here in pastel purple at the Madrid Open.

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Fades

Rafael Nadal (17-1): It’s not crazy to see people jumping on the 14-time Roland Garros champion to win at these odds. But you really should pass on backing Nadal. The Spaniard just hasn’t given anyone any reason to believe he can actually win this event this time. His clay-court season has been disappointing thus far, and he just doesn’t look like the same player anymore.

According to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Nadal is just 37th in Performance Rating on clay in 2024. That means 36 players have performed at a higher level than him this season, yet only six players are above him on the odds board. Nadal is also playing a completely different brand of tennis these days, as he’s no longer capable of playing his signature defense. Instead, he’s looking to hit bigger and bigger, but that’s not his game. Sadly, Rafa is likely looking at an early exit.

Holger Rune (33-1): Rune was bounced in the Round of 32 in both Madrid and Rome, and the 21-year-old is struggling to piece together good results right now. Rune has had some flashes in 2024, like wins over Fritz at Indian Wells and Grigor Dimitrov in Monte Carlo. But Rune has also suffered some embarrassing losses, and he won’t be a player to take seriously at majors until he finds some consistency. Rune also has to find a way to do more damage as a returner. From 2021 to 2023, Rune’s break percentage was at least 21.7%. This year, that number is down at 17.4%. And his baseline game has slipped as well.

Sidelined in Rome, Jannik Sinner says "there is no rush" with injury return

Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner (+460): Until Sinner is ruled out with a hip injury, he’s hard to pass on at these odds. He's 28-3 since the start of the 2024 season and has already won three tournaments, including his maiden Grand Slam in Melbourne. While Sinner is less proven on clay than hard courts, he’s fully capable of finding success on this surface.

Sinner is practicing on clay and will be prepared if he ultimately decides to give it a try. If he does, you’ll have a great price on an elite player. If he doesn’t, FanDuel Sportsbook refunds bets if a player withdraws before the tournament starts.

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