In a rematch of their five-set Wimbledon quarterfinal, Daniil Medvedev will take on world No. 1 Jannik Sinner in the US Open quarterfinals. Medvedev emerged victorious in that battle at the All England Club, snapping a five-match losing streak against the Italian—and I like the Russian’s chances of winning two in a row. But I’m going the safer route and playing Medvedev +5.5 games.
Sinner played a tremendous match against Tommy Paul in the Round of 16. After going down two breaks in the first set, Sinner was able to force a tiebreaker. The Italian ended up winning that ‘breaker 7-3, and he rode that momentum to a straight-set win. Sinner’s serve was a little off in the match, as he wasn’t hitting a good percentage of his first serves. But he was superb on his second serve, and his play from the baseline was flawless. Sinner was tracking down almost everything, even when Paul was finding angles. The Italian was also hitting some insane passing shots, and those ultimately helped him come through in big spots.
The problem with this matchup is that Sinner’s second serve won’t be good enough against Medvedev. If he’s not landing firsts at a high clip, the Russian will make him pay. Paul is one of the best returners in the sport, but Medvedev just might be the best. And Meddy also happens to have the size to obliterate any high-bouncing serves Sinner tosses into the box. Those gave the smaller Paul trouble.
