US Open Men's Betting Preview: Four players without a major you need to know about

The US Open, the final major of the year, is here. On the men’s side, Novak Djokovic is the defending champion. Fresh off winning Olympic gold for the first time, Djokovic will be looking to win a record-setting 25th Grand Slam singles title when he takes the court in Flushing Meadows. Standing in his way will be the usual suspects: Carlos Alcaraz, who has won the last two Grand Slam titles and is the betting favorite; Jannik Sinner, who found his form in Cincinnati and is hoping to add a second major to his resume; Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev, who will be eager to prove that they’re still in the mix; and several other top players.

This should be a fascinating tournament to watch, which also means it’ll be fun to bet. And that brings us to the good stuff: our betting analysis of the US Open.

Fliers

Casper Ruud (80-1): Ruud has been, to be blunt, absolutely terrible recently. The Norwegian has lost four of his last nine matches, albeit while battling some illness. It has, understandably, left a poor taste in the mouths of fans and bettors.

The problem with writing Ruud off is that he has made three Grand Slam finals relatively recently, including at the US Open. This is a player that understands how to win best-of-five matches, and he has had some time to get his cardio up after an early exit in Cincinnati. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ruud plays some much better tennis in New York.

Ruud probably won’t go on to win this tournament—I’m just not sure he has the weapons. But his odds are good enough that you can make some money by hedging if he just makes an extended run. Ruud has proven time and time again that he can do that at majors.

Whether it’s grabbing Ruud at 80-1 or waiting to take him to win his quarter, backing the Norwegian after a short cold stretch could end up being profitable.

Grigor Dimitrov (100-1): Dimitrov suffered a lousy defeat at the hands of Fabian Marozsan in Cincinnati, and that came after a Round of 16 loss to Alexei Popyrin in Montreal (The unseeded Aussie went on to win the title in a breakout run). On top of that, Dimitrov had been injured since Wimbledon before playing those two events. The Bulgarian isn’t in the greatest form right now.

Still, 100-1 odds for a player with Dimitrov's ability is a little nuts. Like Ruud, taking that or jumping on his quarter price could be a sharp move.

Dimitrov has the sixth-highest Elo rating in the world. His ability to rack up holds, utilize the backhand slice and simply construct points at a high level is hard to match. Of course, Dimitrov could struggle the second he sees one of the truly elite players in the world, but he’ll like his chances against anybody else. And all it would take is a little luck elsewhere in the draw for him to get deep in this tournament.

Fades

Stefanos Tsitsipas (50-1): I’m not sure people will be lining up to take Tsitsipas, but he’s a big name and has juicy odds. But it’s best to realize that these odds are available for a reason. Tsitsipas has lost three of his last four matches, with one of those defeats coming at the hands of 223rd-ranked Kei Nishikori. Not only is Tsitsipas’ backhand a major weakness, but he’s starting to misfire on more and more forehands. In fact, things have gotten so bad for Tsitsipas that he had to fire his own father as his coach.

Tsitsipas is still only 26 years old, and players with his ability don’t grow on trees. There’s plenty of time for the Greek star to figure things out. But it’s going to take some time. Don’t even think about backing him in New York.

Pick To Win

Alexander Zverev (12-1): Zverev’s Grand Slam shortcomings might be hard to ignore, but nobody has won more matches than the German in 2024. TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations actually give Zverev a Performance Rating of 8.37 on hard courts this season, which isn’t far off Sinner’s tour-best 8.67. That makes it hard to pass up on Zverev at these odds. There just isn’t that big of a gap between the game’s new Big Three and Zverev, who is clearly the fourth-best player in the world but is capable of beating the others on any given day.

Zverev’s serve makes him a difficult player to beat on a hard court—he’s holding at 91.4% in 2024. Zverev could also be aided by the conditions specific to New York. In qualifying, the US Open courts played a little slower than they usually do; should make Zverev a little more dangerous as a returner, and it’ll also give him some time to load up on the forehand side. Zverev’s forehand can be a weakness, but he should be able to unload if the ball is sitting up for him.

It also doesn’t hurt that Zverev will enter this tournament as the fourth seed. He’ll avoid Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz or Sinner until the semifinals. Of course, Sinner just beat Zverev in Cincinnati. But there’s a lot of negative attention surrounding the Italian because of his doping scandal, and I’m not sure Sinner will be able to easily push that aside. The Italian has also battled a lot of physical problems in recent weeks. Playing best-of-five matches in humid conditions won't help.

I'd probably say Alcaraz if you asked me who I think will actually win this tournament. But these odds are just way too juicy for Zverev. I think the German has a great shot at making the final, and holding a 12-1 ticket gives you a lot of flexibility if he does.