Wimbledon Men's Betting Tip Sheet: Fliers (Tommy Paul), Fades (Novak Djokovic) and Pick To Win

It feels like it was yesterday that Carlos Alcaraz defeated Alexander Zverev at Roland Garros to win his third Grand Slam title. But it’s already time for Wimbledon. Alcaraz is the defending champion at the All England Club, and he (+225) and Jannik Sinner (+160) are listed as the top two favorites on the odds board at DraftKings Sportsbook. Third on the board is Novak Djokovic (+400), who is still questionable to compete at SW19. But no matter who ends up being in the field, we’re in for some exciting action on the prestigious grass courts in London. Keep reading for some players to watch.

Fliers

Hubert Hurkacz (+2000): It’s usually a pretty good idea to jump on a big server at Wimbledon. Well, few on the planet can serve up bombs like Hurkacz. The Pole has the second-highest hold percentage in the world over the last 52 weeks, and he's 64.9% overall on grass—the highest winning percentage he has on any surface. Hurkacz also played rather well at Wimbledon last year, as he lost a nail biter against Djokovic in the fourth round. Hurkacz won one set and sent two others to tiebreakers, showing that he is capable of pushing the world’s best player on this surface. Don’t be surprised if Hurkacz makes a deep run here. He made the semifinals in 2021 and he’s somebody to keep an eye on when betting quarters at this event.

Tommy Paul (+4000): Paul isn’t a player that I think can actually win Wimbledon, but I’m interested in seeing some futures for him to make a run to the semis. Paul was able to win a title at Queen’s Club last week, earning wins over Sebastian Baez, Alejandro Tabilo, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Lorenzo Musetti. Grass might not seem like a surface in which Paul should be effective, but the quicker, lower-bouncing courts make his serve a lot more dangerous. And Paul is fast enough to cover ground on any surface, so he plays better defense than most in these quicker conditions. On top of that, Paul has made great strides at the net in recent seasons. And generally speaking, he’s somebody that nobody likes playing. He’s athletic, confident and highly skilled. Beating him is never easy, as he always believes he's going to come out on top.

Fades

Novak Djokovic (+400): Djokovic seems like he’s going to give it a go. It may seem like a good idea to back the 37-year-old, seven-time Wimbledon champion at this price. But it’s just hard to come to grips with the idea of backing Djokovic as the third-highest player on the odds board. Djokovic should be a legitimate threat to win the Olympics or US Open, but this feels like too quick of a turnaround after the procedure he had on his meniscus. Plus, it’s not like he was playing very well before that. So, while Djokovic is more comfortable on this surface than anyone, it feels pretty likely he gets bounced earlier than expected. Let’s just hope he makes it through the event without slipping.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (+6500): Tsitsipas showed some real signs of life during the clay-court season, playing some of the most inspired tennis we've seen from him in quite some time. But Tsitsipas looked miserable in Halle, where he needed two tiebreakers to beat Henri Squire, and then lost in straight sets to Jan-Lennard Struff. Tsitsipas theoretically has the right game for grass, but it just hasn’t clicked for him on this surface. His 56.8% winning percentage on turf is the lowest he has on any of the three, by far. That said, you shouldn’t be surprised if he loses the second he faces another good server.

Pick To Win

Jannik Sinner (+160): Sinner was unable to beat Alcaraz at Roland Garros, but the quicker conditions in London should give the Italian an edge if they meet in the semis. Of course, Alcaraz won this tournament a year ago, but Sinner lost to Djokovic in back-to-back years. There's no shame in either of those losses, and there’s no reason Sinner shouldn’t be a real force at Wimbledon for the next decade. He’s first in the world in hold percentage over the last 52 week, and has an elite return game and baseline game to back it up. It’s also clear that Sinner’s hip is no longer bothering him, as he won a title in Halle last week—going through Hurkacz in the process. (Not only does that bode well for Sinner on the court, but he likely had some time to do some more cardio. Cramping shouldn’t be an issue like it was in Paris.)