WTA Finals Best Bets: Krejcikova vs. Zheng, Gauff vs. Sabalenka

The semifinals of the WTA Finals will be played on Friday, November 8, when Qinwen Zheng takes on Barbora Krejcikova and Coco Gauff faces Aryna Sabalenka. Hopefully some of you listened to our Tennis Bets Live show last week, as I picked Zheng (+850) and Sabalenka (+175) to win the tournament. Despite the fact that both of them were in the same group, I liked their chances of making it out. They’re now on opposite sides of the bracket, setting up a good opportunity for us to have the winner in this event.

But if you're looking to bet on these matches individually, here’s a look at how I see things going down in Riyadh:

Barbora Krejcikova vs. Qinwen Zheng

While I sprinkled a little on Zheng to win this tournament at +850, I do think this match has the potential to be close. Krejcikova has played some fantastic tennis all throughout this event, as she lost a tough three-set battle against Iga Swiatek in the group-play opener, but battled back to beat both Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff in straight sets.

Krejcikova is one of the most dangerous indoor hard-court players in the world. Her aggressive style, complete with powerful, flat groundstrokes and a flawless net game, makes her incredibly difficult to beat in quicker conditions. That’s why she was able to win Wimbledon over the summer. So while Zheng’s game is probably a little more complete, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which the 22-year-old goes to the final without a hiccup. We’re going to see some competitive sets in this one, and I like Krejcikova to grab at least one of them.

These two have met just once in the past, with Zheng winning 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 in Zhengzhou last year. This should look similar but a bit closer, as the 2024 version of Krejcikova is head and shoulders above the 2023 version.

Pick: Krejcikova +1.5 Sets (-154)

Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka

While Gauff was able to get the better of Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final, the Belarusian is 3-2 in their last five meetings. And the fact that this match will be played in incredibly quick conditions makes it hard not to like Sabalenka to push through somewhat easily.

Gauff is going to battle here—she’s one of the feistiest competitors in the sport. However, she still has some service woes here and there, and Sabalenka’s ability to punish the ball from the baseline will rush her. These quick conditions will also make it more difficult for Gauff to play her brand of elite defensive tennis. And if that’s not enough, we sadly haven’t seen much of a turnout at this event this week. That’s going to be a blow to Gauff, who seems to always have the crowd in her corner. That has been big in this specific matchup, too: Gauff needs the added adrenaline, and Sabalenka struggles with the pressure.

I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of Gauff winning a close set in this match, as she’s incredibly talented and has played very well throughout this week. But I think Sabalenka wins this match—and I’d be stunned if we don’t see a lopsided set or two, allowing the three-time Grand Slam champ to cover the game spread.

Pick: Sabalenka -2.5 Games (-132)