Billie Jean King Cup Qualifiers takes us across six countries, three continents and three different surfaces

Last week, Elena Rybakina was able to beat Iga Swiatek in the semifinals of the Stuttgart Open, and then went on to defeat Marta Kostyuk for the title. This week, the top players in the world are in Spain for the Mutua Madrid Open. Could Rybakina follow up a 500 with a 1000? It will be difficult. Swiatek will be out for revenge on her favorite surface, Aryna Sabalenka is a two-time champion in Madrid, and there will be several other elite players looking to make their way into the mix.

With that in mind, we want to get you ready for everything you’ll see at the Caja Magica. Keep reading for our WTA betting preview of this fantastic event.

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Could Elena Rybakina follow up a 500 title in Stuttgart with a 1000 in Madrid? It will be difficult.

Last 5 Mutua Madrid Open Champions

2018: Petra Kvitova
2019: Kiki Bertens
2020: Canceled (COVID-19)
2021: Aryna Sabalenka
2022: Ons Jabeur
2023: Aryna Sabalenka

Mutua Madrid Open Betting Odds (presented by FanDuel Sportsbook)

Iga Swiatek +140
Elena Rybakina +440
Aryna Sabalenka +650
Danielle Collins 14-1
Coco Gauff 16-1
Marketa Vondrousova 36-1
Qinwen Zheng 36-1
Maria Sakkari 45-1
Emma Raducanu +45-1
Linda Noskova 50-1
(For the rest of the odds, head over to FanDuel Sportsbook)

Mutua Madrid Open Conditions

The Madrid Open is played on clay. The ITF Court Pace Rating has it as a Category 1 event, which is classified as “slow.” However, this tournament plays a little faster than your average clay-court tournament. The altitude is the reason for that. The ball still bounces high, as is natural of a clay-court tournamen, but shots will fly faster through the air.

It’s also worth noting that the players won’t have to worry much about heat and humidity until the second week. The weather is supposed to be in the high 60’s and low 70’s early on, and it’ll eventually get to the high 70’s.

Marta Kostyuk looks the part of a Top 10 player, with odds usually given to longshots.

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Mutua Madrid Open Players To Watch

Iga Swiatek (+140): Swiatek was unable to lift the trophy in Stuttgart last week, but she’s rightfully favored to win Madrid. Swiatek is still 21-3 on clay over the last 52 weeks, and her hold percentage is up at 84.2% in that span. Meanwhile, her break percentage is a 46.1%. On top of that, Swiatek has a massive edge over her opponents from the baseline, as the clay allows her to track down everything with her elite movement. And she also hits as heavy of a ball as anyone on tour. Swiatek’s raw clay-court Elo rating is also up at 2071.6, which is almost 200 higher than Sabalenka. The Belarusian is second in the WTA, so Swiatek is head and shoulders above the pack. And she has never won in Madrid before, so she’ll be eager to change that and pick up some momentum heading into Roland Garros.
Elena Rybakina (+440): Rybakina was available to win Roland Garros at 14-1 odds last week, but her victory over Swiatek in Stuttgart has her down to 12-1. Rybakina is starting to win people over with her clay-court ability. Given the altitude, Rybakina’s serve will be extremely dangerous on the dirt over the next two weeks. And she’ll still get a little help from slow bounces along the baseline, where she isn’t the best mover in the world. Rybakina also has a decent draw, as she wouldn’t have to face Swiatek until the final.
Aryna Sabalenka (+650): You can do a lot worse than backing Sabalenka to win this tournament. She’s just third on the odds board for an event that she has won twice in her career. There’s no reason she can’t win it a third time. Sure, Sabalenka came unglued against Marketa Vondrousova last week, with her serve letting her down, and untimely errors from the baseline not helping matters. But as long as Sabalenka doesn’t let that poor performance bleed into this week, she has a great shot here. Sabalenka is an underrated clay-court performer, and the conditions in Madrid help power players.
Marta Kostyuk (65-1): Kostyuk might have to face Rybakina in the third round, but the winner of that match has a good shot at reaching the final four. People don’t seem ready to accept Kostyuk as one of the top players in the world, but she has looked like one all season. In 2024, Kostyuk is 19-7 and has been to two finals. She is also coming off a run in Stuttgart that featured wins over Qinwen Zheng, Coco Gauff and Vondrousova. Kostyuk is a tremendous returner, and she’s aggressive as can be from the baseline. That makes her a dangerous opponent in any given event. She looks the part of a Top 10 player, with odds usually given to longshots.

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Baseline