WTA Rome Betting Preview: Swiatek's odds are tough to swallow, but there may be no choice

We witnessed a gem of a final in the Mutua Madrid Open last weekend, as Iga Swiatek earned a 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 (7) win over Aryna Sabalenka. Swiatek was able to overcome three championship points before outlasting the Belarusian to win her first title in Madrid. Overall, it felt right seeing Swiatek in the winner’s circle on the red clay. And the Pole is once again favored to raise a trophy on the dirt this week.

Swiatek is a two-time champion at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia, so it’s only fitting that she’s expected to win this. But Elena Rybakina won it last year and many believe she can do it again. And Sabalenka has proven that her game translates nicely to clay, so she’s also live to win this. There are also several other players that are capable of making runs this week.

Let’s get into all of it with our WTA Rome betting preview.

Last 5 Internazionali BNL d’Italia Champions

• 2019: Karolina Pliskova
• 2020: Simona Halep
• 2021: Iga Swiatek
• 2022: Iga Swiatek
• 2023: Elena Rybakina

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Betting Odds (presented by FanDuel Sportsbook)

• Iga Swiatek +110
• Aryna Sabalenka +550
• Elena Rybakina +600
• Coco Gauff +1000
• Danielle Collins +1300
• Mirra Andreeva +2800
• Maria Sakkari +3500
• Jelena Ostapenko +4000
• Marketa Vondrousova +4000
• Jasmine Paolini +4000
• Qinwen Zheng +5000
• Ons Jabeur +5000
• Linda Noskova +5000
• Naomi Osaka +6500

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Conditions

The Mutua Madrid Open and Internazionali BNL d’Italia are both considered Category 1 tournaments in terms of ITF Court Rating. That classifies both of them as slow-playing events. However, conditions are a lot faster in Madrid because of the high altitude. So don’t expect this tournament to look anything like last week’s. The conditions in Rome are like that of your typical clay-court event, with slower and higher bounces than we’ll see all year—especially when not sunny.

This tournament pretty closely mirrors what we’ll see in Roland Garros, but with a little lower of a bounce. But it doesn’t have the massive show courts we’ll see in Paris.

Internazionali BNL d’Italia Players To Watch

• Iga Swiatek (+110): Swiatek won Madrid last week, even though the conditions thwew don’t suit her that well. Swiatek has had some issues winning at attitude in the past, but the changes she made to her serve and forehand helped her quite a bit. Now, Swiatek returns to a slower clay-court setting, where she has proven to be nearly unbeatable in the past. She enters Rome with a 71-10 clay-court record at the WTA level, and is 23-3 on dirt over the last 52 weeks. Swiatek is just such a good mover that it’s hard to get the ball by her, and that’s especially true in Rome (and at Roland Garros). When you couple that with her ability to construct points, it’s tough to beat her along the baseline. Swiatek is also the best returner in the sport right now, and her serve is only getting better. Swiatek is a good bet to win this tournament, even if the odds are tough to swallow. She might have won this tournament for a third year in a row had she not pulled out in the third set against Rybakina in last year’s quarterfinals.
• Aryna Sabalenka (+550): Sabalenka just played a tremendous tournament in Madrid, where she came from behind to beat Rybakina in the semifinals and nearly beat Swiatek in the final. Sabalenka has had some ups and downs as a server lately, but she has made up for it by coming up with big serves in big moments. And Sabalenka was also really clean from the baseline, where she struck a great balance between power and precision. That will be big for her as we move to slower clay-court play. Sabalenka’s power really translates to any court, so she’ll be dangerous in both Rome and Roland Garros. She just needs to show the same discipline she did from the baseline in Madrid. If she does that, she’s very much live to win this event. She’s probably the best player to bet outside of Swiatek.

• Elena Rybakina (+600): Rybakina is the defending champion in Rome, so it’s understandable if you’re looking to back her. She also played really well in a semi-final loss to Sabalenka in Madrid, and she's also in a good place when it comes to form. But there are probably better options than betting Rybakina to win in Rome for the second year in a row. Her serve just isn’t as big of a weapon on a slower clay-court, and there are plenty of players with the ability to best her from the baseline. Rybakina also had a fortunate draw in Rome last year, as Swiatek retired in the third set of their quarter-final match, and she didn’t face any other elite players.
• Jasmine Paolini (+4000): Outside of the top players in the women’s game, Paolini is somebody that has the potential to do some damage this week. The Italian is going to have the home crowd firmly in her corner, and she happens to be a good clay-court player. Over the last 52 weeks, Paolini is 10-7 on dirt, where her ability to outlast opponents from the baseline really stands out. Paolini can also be extremely aggressive with her topspin-heavy forehand, and she’s just a great athlete overall. Paolini also happens to have a very reasonable draw, as she’s in Rybakina’s quarter. Outside of Coco Gauff, Rybakina is the most beatable of the top-four seeds.