It appeared at the end 2011 as if Roger Federer was back; he was on a roll and once again the player to beat. But that’s exactly how he looked at the end of the previous year, and his roll ended in the semifinals in Melbourne. Federer went from back to bad back in Doha last week; he had to pull out of the semifinals after suffering a spasm two days earlier. At some point, health issues will probably begin to catch up with Federer, and this one won’t help the 30-year-old’s preparation for a very tough physical endurance test in the Australian summer heat.

Why He’ll Win: Federer has done it three times here before, and after close five-set defeats at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, he’s due for some good luck.

Why He Won’t: The chinks in his Slam armor have gotten progressively larger over the last two years. Three-out-of-five in serious heat for two weeks will expose them further.

Bottom Line: Federer will likely give himself a shot, the way he did at the 2011 U.S. Open; the question may be whether he can finish against Nole or Rafa.

More Previews:

- Kim Clijsters
- Juan Martin del Potro
- Petra Kvitova
- Novak Djokovic
- Maria Sharapova
- Roger Federer
- Samantha Stosur
- Andy Murray
- Serena Williams
- Rafael Nadal
- Caroline Wozniacki