Stosur has always had trouble living up to expectations when she plays at home in Australia: Top-seeded in Brisbane in her first tournament of 2012, she bombed out in the second round. So even her newly earned status as a Grand Slam champion, and the hopes it inspires, are likely to be as much of a millstone as an advantage in Melbourne. Although she’s the U.S. Open champion and a former runner-up at the French Open, she’s made the fourth round of her native Slam just twice in eight attempts. It took Stosur, now 27, a long time to overcome a reputation as a headcase, but she’s finally done it. There may yet be hope for those who are lusting to see an Australian of either gender win his or her native major for the first time since little-known journeywoman Chris O’Neill did it in 1978.
Why She’ll Win: Stosur is an extremely diligent professional, and the poise and skill she showed when she won the 2011 U.S. Open has made her a believer in herself.
Why She Won’t: The pressure will get to her. The more the home crowd urges her on, the more discombobulated she’ll become.
Bottom Line: She’ll make the second week, scoring a moral victory, but by then she’ll be so drained and on edge that she’ll play a bad match and stumble out.
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