2016 French Open Semifinal Previews

Who are the two hottest players on the women’s tour at the moment? It won’t surprise you that Serena is one of them; with her title in Rome and her semifinal run in Paris, the world No. 1 has won 20 of her last 21 sets. But would you believe that Bertens has been very nearly as good during that time? Between her title in Nuremberg (which she came out of qualifying to win), and her own, unexpected semifinal run at Roland Garros, the Netherlands native has won 12 straight matches. And with her playing partner, Johanna Larsson, she also helped eliminate Serena and her sister Venus in doubles.

Will Serena get her revenge on Friday in Chatrier? Probably. But it might not be easy. These two have played once, at last year’s U.S. Open, and while Serena won 7-6 (5), 6-3, Bertens had her on the ropes for the entire first set. And you have to assume, based on her confidence level right now, that Bertens will be a tougher opponent tomorrow. The question, of course, is which Serena she’ll face. The sharp and efficient one who made quick work of her first four opponents, or the half-step-slow one who was five points from losing to Yulia Putintseva, a player ranked two spots below Bertens? I’ll bet on the former.

Winner: S. Williams

At the start of the tournament, I picked these two to make the semifinals, not out of any great conviction about their current form, but because each has the heavy-hitting baseline game that’s needed for red clay. That heavy hitting has served both of them well in Paris in the past; Stosur has been to a final and a semifinal here, while Muguruza reached the quarters the last two years.

Who did I pick to win this semi two weeks ago? Muguruza. While the Aussie can be up and down from one day to the next, once the Spaniard gets on a roll, she’s hard to stop, and so it has proven in Paris. Still, Stosur has knocked off the last two runners-up in Paris, Lucie Safarova and Simona Halep, and she won her only meeting with Muguruza, on clay in Madrid in 2014.

Winner: Muguruza

This one is interesting, and tough to call. Compared to the rest of the match-ups among the ATP’s top players, Murray and Wawrinka don’t face each other all that often: 15 times in 11 years, and just three times since 2012. As far as who is more likely to win, anything positive you can say about one player can be countered by something equally positive about the other. Murray leads their head to head 8-7, but Wawrinka has won the last three without dropping a set. Over the last two seasons, Murray has been the steadier player and the better clay-courter, but during that time it’s Wawrinka who has won the French Open. And while Murray has beaten both Rafael Nadal and Djokovic in the last month, Wawrinka has rounded into form right on time. Just like last year, he appears to peaking when it counts.

We know what we’re going to get from Murray: consistency, variety, intelligence, a mix of speed for defense and strength for offense. We’re not quite as sure about Wawrinka: If he’s on and belting his backhand through the court, he’ll win; if not, he’ll lose. Which leads me to wonder if the weather might be a decisive factor. If, as the forecast says, it’s another heavy and overcast day in Paris, the advantage should go to Murray.

Winner: Murray

Listening to some people, you might think this is Djokovic’s last chance to nab a French Open title before the 22-year-old Thiem starts taking them all. And it’s true, the sky’s the limit when it comes to Thiem’s potential on clay. He already has five titles on the surface, and he showed off his shotmaking prowess in a quality quarterfinal win over David Goffin on Thursday. The question now is whether Thiem is ready to take the ultimate step, and beat the world No. 1 in his first Grand Slam semifinal.

It’s not impossible: Thiem played Djokovic tough over two high-level sets in Miami two months ago, and that was on hard courts, the Serb’s favored surface. But Djokovic still won that match, in large part because he didn’t need to be spectacular to get the job done. I think he slows the Thiem train for at least one more year.

Winner: Djokovic