2016 Miami Open Women's Final Preview

After a remarkable week-and-a-half in Key Biscayne, it all comes down to this match in the Florida sun.

Victoria Azarenka knows she’s the favorite going into her Miami Open final against Svetlana Kuznetsova on Saturday. Vika is ranked more than 10 sports higher than Sveta, she’s 21-1 on the season, she’s coming off her biggest title (the BNP Paribas Open) and biggest victory (over Serena Williams) in two years and she’s one match from completing the rare and vaunted Indian Wells-Miami double. Azarenka was confident enough this week to say that she's going through a period of “big progress” in her career, and to stake her claim as an honest-to-goodness rival to Serena.

But Vika also knows that she’s facing a uniquely dangerous opponent in Kuznetsova.

“She’s a very talented and diverse player,” Azarenka said on Thursday. “She’s one of the players who knows how to handle the big stages.”

Vika is right on both counts. The 30-year-old Kuznetsova has long been one of the WTA’s most powerful athletes and unpredictable talents. She’s been in and out of the Top 10 since she was a teenager, and she can do a lot of different things—crush flat backhands, hit high and heavy forehands, finish points at the net, grind from the baseline. Kuznetsova is one of the rare players whose game is hard to describe, and that’s part of what makes her tricky to play and interesting to watch.

Just as important, Azarenka is also right to say that Kuznetsova knows her way around a big stage. In case you’ve forgotten—and you may have—she won the U.S. Open in 2004, that banner year for Russian women’s tennis, and the French Open in 2009. She beat countrywoman Maria Sharapova to win the title in Key Biscayne in 2006; as Kuznetsova recalled his week, that run also included a win over Martina Hingis from match point down. And while she hasn’t won much of note in the last seven years, Kuznetsova has been doggedly persistent in Miami this week. Not only did she match Azarenka’s win over Serena, but she followed it up by outlasting Ekaterina Makarova and Timea Bacsinszky. As we’ve learned, it’s not easy to back up an earth-shattering upset. After all, the ground has moved under you, too.

Azarenka and Kuznetsova are 4-4 in their head to head; Vika won their last meeting, at the 2013 Australian Open. Kuznetsova’s diversity and experience could pose a problem for Vika’s more straightforward power-baseline game; she’s used to being in control, but that won’t come easily or automatically against Sveta. And as well as Azarenka has played so far this year, and as fiercely motivated as she is to win everything in sight after two years of struggling, she still gets nervous. It took her two service games and three double faults to close out Angelique Kerber in the semis.

It wouldn’t be a shock to see Kuznetsova derail Azarenka. Vika is 18-16 in finals, a good but not intimidating record for someone of her stature. Kuznetsova is 16-21; that's not bad for someone of her stature. But Azarenka remains the percentage pick because she’s still in her prime, and for the first time in a long time, she knows it.

Winner: Azarenka