2016 Olympics Women’s Tennis Preview: Serena and Venus Williams peaking at right time for Rio

The world’s best women players have made a stronger showing in Rio than their male counterparts; eight of the WTA’s Top 10 are in the Olympic field, and the draw is stronger among the rank and file as well. That has been true ever since tennis came back to the Games in 1988. Miloslav Mecir, a man who never won a major, was the gold medalist on the men’s side that year, while Steffi Graf, a woman who won 22 majors, took home first prize for Germany.

Now there’s another 22-time Slam winner in the women’s draw. Can Serena Williams become the first, and almost certainly the last, player to record a double career Golden Slam? Here’s a look ahead at the women’s draw. It’s seems more likely than the men’s to give us a surprise medalist or two.

First Quarter

In London four years ago, Serena was dead set on winning her first singles gold medal, and she did it by turning in one of the most dominant weeks in tennis history—she may never have played better. This time, she has admitted, she has been more focused on winning her 22nd major than she has on winning in Rio. That doesn’t mean she won’t start to feel the Olympic spirit once she’s on court; but it might mean she’ll lose a few games, or maybe even a set, along the way. There’s some strong competition in her quarter.

Serena will start against 46th-ranked Daria Gavrilova; Williams won their only meeting, in Doha in 2013, in straight sets. Her potential second-rounder against Alizé Cornet could be of more interest; the Frenchwoman has won their last two meetings, though with Serena I’d say that means it’s less likely that she’ll do it again.

Also here: Roberta Vinci, Petra Kvitova, Elina Svitolina, Caroline Wozniacki, Ekaterina Makarova

First-round match to watch: Svitolina vs. Andrea Petkovic

Semifinalist: S. Williams

Second Quarter

Which Garbiñe Muguruza will we see in Rio? The French Open champion or the Wimbledon early loser? She should feel at home on hard courts, and on her native continent. But she’ll have to settle in quickly, because she has one of the tougher first-rounders, against former No. 1 Jelena Jankovic. Muguruza leads their head-to-head 3-1.

The second seed in this section is 2000 gold medalist Venus Williams. Can this all-time Olympic lover bring home one more singles medal, in her fifth Games? Her road doesn’t look smooth: Venus starts against Kirsten Flipkens, could play Lucie Safarova in the second round and Timea Bacsinszky after that. One positive for Venus if she reaches the quarters: She’s 3-0 against Muguruza.

Also here: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. The Russian has had a good run of late.

Semifinalist: V. Williams

Third Quarter

The sometimes-too-powerful Madison Keys and the sometimes-not-powerful-enough Agnieszka Radwanska are top two seeds in this section. They could face off in the quarters, as expected, but they also seem just as likely to allow a surprise semifinalist to sneak through. Who might that be? It’s actually hard to find a contender here: Kiki Mladenovic? Carla Suarez Navarro? Barbora Strycova? Daria Kasatkina? Ana Ivanovic? On this neutral hard court, I think you have to like Keys’ and Radwanska’s chances. Aga leads their head to head 5-1, but Maddy beat her 6-3, 6-2 at the U.S. Open last year.

First-round match to watch: Suarez Navarro vs. Ivanovic

Semifinalist: Radwanska

Fourth Quarter

Two sections above, I asked which Muguruza we were likely to get in Rio; I’ll ask it again here, with Angelique Kerber. So far in 2016, the German has been to two major finals, and lost in the first round five times. Maybe the best sign was her semifinal run in Montreal last week; she shook off an elbow injury and got in some work on hard courts. Kerber will start against 82nd-ranked Mariana Duque-Marino, and would play either Sloane Stephens or Eugenie Bouchard after that.

Kerber’s toughest competition might come from Svetlana Kuznetsova in the quarters. Sveta has never won a medal, but she has played well this year, and has a 4-3 career record against Kerber.

Also here: Johanna Konta, Sam Stosur

First-round match to watch: Bouchard vs. Stephens

Semifinalist: Kuznetsova

Semifinals: S. Williams d. V. Williams; Radwanska d. Kuznetsova

Bronze-medal match: Kuznetsova d. V. Williams

Gold-medal match: S. Williams d. Radwanska