2023 National Bank Open men's preview: Carlos Alcaraz leads stacked Toronto field

WATCH: Alcaraz made a strong impression in his first appearance since Wimbledon at Hopman Cup in Nice.

For the men, the second half of 2023 begins in earnest when they arrive in Toronto. The National Bank Open is a Masters 1000, it has a $7.6 million purse, and it features nine of the ATP’s Top 10. Granted, the one who’s missing is a big one: Novak Djokovic. But Carlos Alcaraz will return to the tour for the first time since his scintillating Wimbledon win. Right now that’s probably all that most tennis fans need to know to get them interested.

Last year, most of the top players weren’t ready to bring their A games to Canada after the break. The result was a career-first Masters victory for Pablo Carreño Busta, who isn’t in the draw this year. Will the big guns be better prepared this time around?

First Quarter

You might wonder if there’s anything Alcaraz could improve upon at this point. How about his 2022 performance in Canada? Last year in Montreal, he lost his opening match to Tommy Paul in three sets. With Djokovic absent this week, that gives Alcaraz a chance to go deeper and put some more distance between them in the rankings.

There aren’t a lot of easy draws in 56-player Masters events, and Alcaraz doesn’t have one. He could start against big-serving Ben Shelton. He could face Hubert Hurkacz, who made the final in Canada last year, after that. And his quarterfinal opponent might be his old friend and future rival Holger Rune.

But this is a different Alcaraz. Last year he came to Toronto in a mid-season lull that would last until the US Open. This year he comes in as the Wimbledon champ and world No. 1, with the wind firmly in his sails.

First-round match to watch: Hurkacz vs. Alexander Bublik

Potential second-round match to watch: Tommy Paul vs. Francisco Cerundolo

Semifinalist: Alcaraz

Second Quarter

Alcaraz isn’t the only Top Tenner looking to improve in Canada. Stefanos Tsitsipas, the top seed in this section, lost his opener last year, while Jannik Sinner, the second seed, lost in the second round in 2022. But both guys have some momentum right now. Last month, Sinner made his first major semifinal at Wimbledon. This past week, Tsitsipas made the final on hard courts in Los Cabos.

The Greek and the Italian, who are slated to meet in the quarterfinals, have split their two matches in 2023. Both should be contenders here, in Cincinnati, and in New York. Tsitsipas could start against either Gaël Monfils or Chris Eubanks; Sinner may open against his countryman Matteo Berrettini.

Also here: Félix Auger-Aliassime. Injury has stalled him this season, but he’ll be at home this week. He could get Sinner in the third round.

First-round matches to watch: Monfils vs. Eubanks, Andy Murray vs. Lorenzo Sonego

Semifinalist: Tsitsipas

Third Quarter

Casper Ruud is one player who didn’t get off to a slow start in Canada last year. He reached the semis here, a run that foreshadowed his final-round appearance at the US Open a month later. Since then, he’s shown a continued ability to rise to the occasion at the Slams, but he’s highly erratic from one week to the next—losing 6-0 sets has not been uncommon for him, even against lower-ranked players. This week the third seed might start against Jiri Lehecka; after that, he could meet a man he straight-setted at Roland Garros, Alexander Zverev.

Andrey Rublev and Frances Tiafoe are the top two seeds in the other half of this section. They’ve both had successful seasons, and both are in the Top 10; Rublev won his first Masters 1000 earlier this year, in Monte Carlo, while Tiafoe reached his first semifinal at this level, in Indian Wells. But if Rublev has had the better career so far, Tiafoe has had the better of their head-to-head. He’s 2-1 against the Russian, with both wins coming at the US Open.

First-round match to watch: Tiafoe vs. Milos Raonic

Semifinalist: Rublev

Fourth Quarter

This section is led by two hard-court specialists, Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz. Medvedev was the best on the surface in the spring, while Fritz has picked up the pace in Atlanta and D.C. this summer. From now through the US Open is prime time for both men. Medvedev has won titles in Canada, Cincinnati, and New York in the past, and he’ll want to try to make some inroads as early he can against Alcaraz, who has had his number this season. Fritz, meanwhile, is looking to build up to a big result at his home Slam after going out in the first round last year.

Fritz, who may be over-tennised after two straight weeks of play, will start against either Nicolas Jarry or Ugo Humbert. A rested but possibly rusty Medvedev might open against Canadian wild card Vasek Pospisil.

First-round match to watch: Cameron Norrie vs. Alex De Minaur

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Semifinals: Alcaraz d. Tsitsipas; Medvedev d. Rublev

Final: Alcaraz d. Medvedev