2023 Roland Garros Betting Spotlight: Carlos Alcaraz

WATCH: Novak Djokovic discusses Carlos Alcaraz's stardom

Until Carlos Alcaraz takes the court at Roland Garros, he’ll have to answer questions about losing to unheralded qualifier Fabian Marozsan in Rome. Alcaraz was a -20000 favorite to win that match—good for an implied probability of 99.5%. That made the upset one of the biggest in the history of the sport. However, Alcaraz is still the favorite to win the French Open, as the 20-year-old is going off at +125 odds to win. And despite his loss in Rome, I like the Spaniard to get the job done in Paris.

Something worth remembering is that Alcaraz likely would have beaten Marozsan if Rome was a best-of-five event. After all, Marozsan was a plus-money play on the live market all the way up until the match was over. It’s also just tough to expect Alcaraz to win every match he plays. The Spaniard was likely a bit fatigued after having just won Barcelona and Madrid, and Marozsan played a superb match, as he was aggressive from the baseline and utilized his drop shot to move Alcaraz around the court. The Spaniard simply wasn’t ready for that type of battle. It happens.

Alcaraz is still the best clay-court player on the planet though—especially with Rafael Nadal sitting this year’s French Open out. His movement on the dirt is unparalleled, and he can hit winners from all over the court. The clay also makes Alcaraz an even more lethal returner than he usually is. When you combine that with the fact that the early loss in Rome gives him two weeks to rest up and prepare, it’s hard not to love Alcaraz to win his second major.

Another thing working in Alcaraz’s favor is that Novak Djokovic hasn’t had much time to get himself ready for Grand Slam-level tennis. Djokovic lost a tight three-set match to Holger Rune in the Rome quarterfinals, and is just 5-3 on clay this season. The only thing that has been consistent with Djokovic’s 2023 season has been the stop-and-start nature of his schedule.

Alcaraz’s biggest challenges just might come from players like Rune, Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev. But on a stage like Roland Garros, do you really trust any of them to beat the Spaniard? Alcaraz has proven time and again that he is capable of taking his game to another level under the brightest of lights. And his conditioning also happens to be unmatched, yet another advantage he has over his peers. When those guys are tired later in five-set matches, Alcaraz has another gear he can reach.

Overall, I’m not worrying too much about Alcaraz's loss to Marozsan. Alcaraz has won 90.9% of his matches on the ATP Tour this season, so he’s allowed to have a stinker every now and then. Just don’t expect him to do it at Roland Garros, where Alcaraz is going to be eager to win the tournament for the first time in his career. He knows that this is his time now that Nadal is on the shelf. And while +125 odds might not seem great now, you'll surely love them when he's a massive favorite to beat whoever he faces from the quarterfinals on.