2023 Roland Garros Betting Spotlight: Novak Djokovic

With Rafael Nadal unable to compete at Roland Garros this year, nobody heads into the clay-court major with more championship pedigree than 22-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic. The Serbian has won this event twice in his career, most recently in 2021. He’ll be one of only two players in this field that has won a French Open title, with the other being 2015 champion Stan Wawrinka. That puts quite a bit of weight on Djokovic’s shoulders, and I tend to believe that the 36-year-old might not be able to handle it.

I fully expect Djokovic to be the man to beat at Wimbledon, but the Serbian just hasn’t played a lot of tennis recently. After winning the Australian Open, Djokovic missed a month before returning to action in Dubai. It then took him over a month before getting back on the court in Monte Carlo. Djokovic lost to Lorenzo Musetti in the second round of that tournament, and his results afterwards weren't all that encouraging either. At the Srpska Open, he lost to fellow countryman Dusan Lajovic in straight sets in the quarterfinals. And in his final tournament before the French Open, Djokovic lost to Holger Rune in the quarterfinals of Rome, an event that the Serbian has dominated in the past.

With Djokovic having not yet found his footing, it feels a little reckless to bet on him to win Roland Garros. If you’re planning to bet on one of the favorites, you’re better off backing Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz has already won two of the biggest clay-court events of the season, as he emerged victorious in Barcelona and Madrid. He also dominated on his way to winning a title at Indian Wells in March, which some have called a clay-court event that’s played on a hard surface. On top of that, Alcaraz is also 31-5 on the dirt over the last 52 weeks.

Outside of Alcaraz, there are a few other players that should be taken more seriously than Djokovic heading into the French Open. For starters, Rune has won two matches in a row against him, and he’s a decent play at +750 odds to win. You can also do a lot worse than backing Daniil Medvedev at +1500, or Casper Ruud at +1800. Medvedev is coming off the best clay-court season of his life, and he comes into this event after having won the Italian Open. Nobody on the planet has more momentum than the Russian, who also knows exactly what it takes to beat Djokovic in a best-of-five event. And Ruud started to really round into form later in the clay-court season, and is coming off a run to the final at last year’s French Open.

Outside of Alcaraz, there are a few other players that should be taken more seriously than Djokovic heading into the French Open.

I’m not suggesting any of these players are better than Djokovic when all things are equal—although a very good case can be made that Alcaraz is. But all things aren’t equal. The stop-and-start nature of Djokovic’s 2023 schedule has made it hard on him to find his game, and winning at Roland Garros is hard enough to begin with.

So, with there being question marks surrounding Djokovic's conditioning and elbow strength, this is an incredibly daunting task. Look for these next few months to be big in helping the Serbian find his form and contend at the All England Club. Just don’t bank on him doing what he did in Melbourne. He still needs some time.