2023 US Open Expert Picks: Men's and women's final fours and champions

Peter Bodo

• Men's semifinalists: Jannik Sinner, Hubert Hurkacz, Holger Rune, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Sinner, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Sinner

It’s very hard—perhaps even borderline delusional—to leave Alcaraz and Djokovic off the trophy podium. But you know what they say: that’s why they play the game. Sinner has looked good this summer, and Rune has a big game and the temperament to give Djokovic all he can handle in a semi. And that means a potentially heavy-legged 36-year-old facing a fresh and highly competent 22-year-old in the final. After living through so many years of Big Four domination, it’s high time the game split open at the seams. Can we hold off on the Alcaraz coronation for at least a little while longer?

• Women's semifinalists: Coco Gauff, Karolina Muchova, Jessica Pegula, Ons Jabeur
• Women's finalists: Gauff, Pegula
• Women's champion: Gauff

Okay, it sounds like an American jingoist’s fever dream, but if you look at the arc of my projected finalists in recent weeks it isn’t all that unrealistic. After all, patient, i-dotting and t-crossing Pegula has worked her way to a No. 3 seeding. Super coach Brad Gilbert has turned No. 6 Gauff into a believer again. Meanwhile, some of the other, more heralded contenders, including No. 2 seed Aryna Sabalenka and No. 5 Ons Jabeur, have struggled to sustain momentum they built earlier. The big factor for Gauff and Pegula, those fun-loving doubles partners, will be the pressure that comes with contending for a first major.

Joel Drucker

• Men's semifinalists: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Alcaraz, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Djokovic

All year long, Alcaraz and Djokovic have stood head and shoulders above all others. Now comes the chance for a vintage US Open year-end showdown: a classic match-up between the comet-like Alcaraz and the incredible Djokovic. Key factor: Who’s more rested coming into the final? The thinking here is that the very nature of Djokovic’s game will yield an easier time along the way, and that his spirits were greatly buoyed by the recent win over Alcaraz in Cincinnati. Give the slight edge this time to experience.

• Women's semifinalists: Iga Swiatek, Karolina Muchova, Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka
• Women's finalists: Swiatek, Sabalenka
• Women's champion: Swiatek

All four of thee players are highly motivated. Having not been as dominant this year as last, Swiatek comes to New York on a mission to both defend her title and emphatically prove why she’s No. 1. Muchova hopes to follow up her run to the finals of Roland Garros. Pegula seeks to at last reach a Slam semi. And Sabalenka intends to bracket a year that started with a victory at a major with another. In the end, though, Swiatek’s power, spin and speed will provide the right mix of margin and power.

Matt Fitzgerald

• Men's semifinalists: Carlos Alcaraz, Alex de Minaur, Casper Ruud, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Alcaraz, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Djokovic

Alcaraz will be under pressure as the defending champ, and a quarterfinal rematch with Jannik Sinner looms as a blockbuster. The 20-year-old has rarely been tripped up early this year, making the semis at 10 of 12 events. Djokovic triumphed on his return to the U.S. in a mouthwatering final over Alcaraz in Cincinnati and will be even more hungry to return to the winner’s circle in New York, last tasting victory there in 2018. Getting Wimbledon revenge against Alcaraz would be some way to reach major No. 24.

• Women's semifinalists: Coco Gauff, Karolina Muchova, Marketa Vondrousova, Aryna Sabalenka
• Women's finalists: Gauff, Sabalenka
• Women's champion: Gauff

Gauff made strides last year in reaching the quarterfinals and this time around, has a win over Iga Swiatek to her name. The two could duel again in the last eight here, but with Gauff showing her heart and mind are clicking like never before thanks in part to a revamped team, a major breakthrough just may be the cherry on top to an unforgettable summer. Sabalenka has been the steadiest on the Grand Slam stage this year with a 17-2 mark and has grown to love Queens with successive semifinal showings.

David Kane

• Men's semifinalists: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Alcaraz, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Alcaraz

The men’s side boasts a slightly modified Big 3 heading into the US Open, with top seeds Alcaraz and Djokovic poised to storm into the semifinals. Former champ Medvedev hasn’t looked as strong since his clay-court campaign, but proved tough to beat in best-of-five at Wimbledon. The wild card will come from the Casper Ruud-Holger Rune quarter, where either Paul or Frances Tiafoe must capitalize. Though Djokovic got the better of Alcaraz in Cincinnati, their Wimbledon classic removed the 23-time Grand Slam champion’s aura of invincibility, and Djokovic has tended to underperform—relatively speaking—in New York.

• Women's semifinalists: Iga Swiatek, Victoria Azarenka, Liudmila Samsonova, Aryna Sabalenka
• Women's finalists: Swiatek, Sabalenka
• Women's champion: Sabalenka

Gauff’s Cincinnati win could prove a game-changer in the battle between Swiatek and the field, but by the last eight, Swiatek has far more experience in majors against the fast-learning American teen. Comfortable in Queens, Azarenka has a momentum-friendly draw that could help her bookend her season with a pair of major semifinals. A refreshed Samsonova may finally be ready to make her major breakthrough in time for Sabalenka to break her semifinal curse. The world No. 2 has proven her worst enemy in the late stages of majors, but hard courts are still her best surface, and an in-form Swiatek may be the inspiration she needs to win a second Slam.

Jon Levey

• Men’s semifinals: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic
• Men’s final: Alcaraz, Djokovic
• Men’s champion: Alcaraz

The expectations for an Alcaraz vs. Djokovic epic recalls all those years fans salivated over Federer vs. Nadal finals in Flushing—that never materialized. However, these two have so distanced themselves from the pack that it’s more than just wishful thinking. Nothing separates them, and after another bruising, extended marathon that tests their wills and viewer stamina, their seesaw rivalry swings back to Alcaraz.

• Women’s Semifinals: Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Donna Vekic
• Women’s Final: Rybakina, Pegula
• Women’s Champion: Rybakina

It’s been something of an uneven season for Rybakina, with little momentum as of late. Her quarter is no bargain either, but her playing style translates well to Slams, with the extra day of rest recharging her power game. A deep run by Pegula would thrill the hometown crowd, even if it’s not quite enough to overcome Rybakina when she finds her stride.

Stephanie Livaudais

• Men's semifinalists: Carlos Alcaraz, Alex de Minaur, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Alcaraz, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Alcaraz

These four names have dominated the North American hard-court swing, but Djokovic and Alcaraz have been on a different level all year. And while Djokovic may have gotten his revenge in the Cincinnati final, the way he celebrated his victory revealed just how much his Wimbledon defeat to Alcaraz had gotten under his skin. Djokovic will also face the added challenge that the US Open presents, as the major where historically he has struggled the most, further tipping the scales in the Spaniard’s favor.

• Women's semifinalists: Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Elina Svitolina, Aryna Sabalenka
• Women's finalists: Rybakina, Sabalenka
• Women's champion: Rybakina

The WTA’s new ‘Big 3’ have split most of the important trophies this season, and look poised to continue their dominance on the hard courts in Queens. Svitolina is the perfect candidate for not-so-surprise semifinalist, after her performance this summer amid her comeback from maternity leave. In the final, a battle-tested Rybakina would rise to the occasion against Sabalenka to overcome their one-sided head to head (1-4) and lift her second Grand Slam trophy.

Ed McGrogan

• Men's semifinalists: Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Alcaraz, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Alcaraz

Plenty of viable options in the third quarter, but Paul is playing the best of them all. Still, he’ll be no match for Djokovic, who is probably looking forward to facing Alcaraz as much as we are watching them. The two stars enter the tournament having split the last four majors, and they’ll leave it the same way, with the defending champion narrowly hanging onto his title.

• Women's semifinalists: Iga Swiatek, Karolina Muchova, Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka
• Women's finalists: Swiatek, Pegula
• Women's champion: Swiatek

Iga could play Coco in quarterfinal made for Arthur Ashe Stadium. Gauff will have the crowd and momentum on her side, but it’s hard to envision Swiatek reaching just a single Slam semifinal this seasonn. Pegula has a tough opener (Camila Giorgi) and some potential stumbling blocks along the way (Elina Svitolina and Madison Keys are nearby), but on the whole, it’s not the worst draw for a player supremely motivated to at least get past the quarters of a major for the first time.

Steve Tignor

• Men's semifinalists: Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, Tommy Paul, Novak Djokovic
• Men's finalists: Zverev, Djokovic
• Men's champion: Djokovic

Zverev, who is in Alcaraz’s quarter, has been rounding into form, and he has a win over the Spaniard at a Slam. Djokovic hasn’t won Flushing Meadows since 2018, and should be motivated to end that streak after losing at Wimbledon. Paul is the flavor of the moment among U.S. men.

• Women's semifinalists: Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, Jessica Pegula, Aryna Sabalenka
• Women's finalists: Swiatek, Sabalenka
• Women's champion: Sabalenka

With the top four seeds in the semis, this is obviously a chalk pick, which is always risky. But all four are healthy, and they’re the players to beat at the majors. Sabalenka has fallen in a series of semis recently, but she still has the WTA’s most explosive game.

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