2024 Wimbledon men's draw takeaways: Novak Djokovic's in and Jannik Sinner has an early test

The first Sinner-Alcaraz Grand Slam final will have to wait again

This draw can be seen as a bracket-based metaphor for where the men’s game stands today—two members of a new generation are gradually taking over the tour, while one member of the old generation stubbornly stands in their way.

Jannik Sinner, 22 and Carlos Alcaraz, 21, have won the first two majors of 2024, and were briefly ranked No. 1 and 2. But Novak Djokovic, 37, isn’t quite ready to put up the white flag yet. Despite having a knee procedure just three weeks ago, the Serb remains in the field. The result, as it was at Roland Garros, is that Sinner and Alcaraz have been pushed into the same half of the draw.

Once again, their first meeting in a Grand Slam final will have to wait.

Once again, the Big 3 refuse to go quietly, or clear the way for a long-awaited changing of the guard.

Of the Top 3 seeds, Sinner has the toughest early-round draw

If and when Sinner or his coaches looked at the brackets on Friday morning, they must have felt good. For the first time, his name was at the top of a Grand Slam draw. But that feeling might not have lasted for long. It would only have taken a millisecond for his team to see another Italian’s name just two lines down. And not just any Italian’s. Matteo Berrettini made the Wimbledon final in 2021 and was a favorite to win the title in 2022, until he had to pull out with COVID-19.

Before this draw was made, Berrettini, who reached the final in Stuttgart on grass two weeks ago, was on the short list of sleeper picks again. Sinner did win their only previous meeting, last summer on hard courts, but Berrettini is a different, more dangerous animal on grass.

As for Alcaraz, he must like what he sees ahead of him: Frances Tiafoe, possibly, in the third round; Ugo Humbert in the fourth; and Casper Ruud in the quarters.

Djokovic’s path looks manageable as well, with a couple of exceptions: A possible fourth-round encounter with Holger Rune, and a quarterfinal with grass-lover Hubert Hurkacz.

Three Americans look like possible dark horses

U.S. men tend to succeed on grass at a second-tier level. They win Wimbledon tune-up events, and advance to the quarters at the Big W. This year three of them, Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, and Seb Korda, would seem to have a chance to go farther.

It’s hard to believe that Paul, at 27, has only played the main draw at Wimbledon twice. He’s a respectable 5-2 in those outings, and, perhaps more important, he’s coming off his first grass-court title, and his biggest win yet, at Queen’s Club. Paul has the raw athleticism for grass, but does he believe he can seriously contend at the world’s most important event? More specifically, does he believe he can beat Alcaraz there, because he may face him in the quarterfinals. Paul upset Alcaraz in Canada last summer, and almost did it again in Cincinnati.

If Paul is playing the most promising tennis among the Americans, Fritz and Korda aren’t far behind—the former is in the semifinals at Eastbourne, the latter has made a final and a semi in his two grass tune-ups. Perhaps more crucially, they have better draws than Paul. Each of them is in the quarter headed by Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev, and the half without Sinner and Alcaraz.

High-profile first-round matches are hard to find—but Andy Murray’s home-court swan song will bring the drama

The 32-seed draws at Slams can leave us with precious few marquee openers, and that looks truer than ever this time around. The closest things I can find to a must-watch are Korda vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Andy Murray vs. Tomas Machac.

Of course, anything with Murray in it will qualify as a marque moment this fortnight. It will likely be the two-time home champion’s last trip across the lawns. Murray is 0-2 against Machac, and he injured his back last week at Queen’s. But even if he’s hobbling across it, there will be drama on Centre Court.

And the winner will be…

My first inclination is to say Alcaraz. He’s the defending champion, and he’s coming off a win at Roland Garros. But is he consistent enough yet to do it again and complete a rare Channel Slam? So far, he hasn’t followed a big win with another. After Wimbledon last year, he didn’t win another title.

That takes me to Djokovic. He obviously has the pedigree, and he has a good draw. But we don’t know if has his health. He just had surgery, and he only decided he was ready to play late this week.

Which takes me, finally, to Sinner. He’s never been to a Wimbledon final, he lost to Djokovic in a one-sided semifinal in 2023, and he may have to face down Berrettini in the second round. But he also just won his first title on grass, and he has a more natural game for the surface than Alcaraz—against whom Sinner won their only meeting at Wimbledon, in four sets, two years ago.

Semifinals: Sinner d. Alcaraz; Djokovic d. Fritz

Final: Sinner d. Djokovic