* !Picby Pete Bodo*
It's a truism that each Grand Slam event is really two different tournaments, divided by the middle Sunday.
The tone, mood, and match-ups of week two are radically different from those of week one, when the smoke often obscures events on the battlefield. But I'm starting to think the real demarcation point is the end of round two. That's partly because of how many truly good players there are out there today, and partly because by then nobody has any place to hide.
I've always felt that "bracketology" is not just an inexact science, before play begins it's a downright joke. But now that two rounds of the Australian Open are complete (think of them as qualifying rounds, from which no player is exempt), we have three solid reasons for forming opinions and even predicting outcomes—if that's your thing.
- We've actually seen the contenders in action. Imagine that: basing an opinion on something like evidence!
- The inevitable "unusual suspects" (think Greta Arn, Sara Errani, or Nicolas Mahut) have cleared that critical round two hurdle and their impact on events can be significant.
- Last and most important, the inevitable upsets, while not necessarily earth-shattering, have jimmied open holes in the draw that cannot be ignored. And nobody, no matter how astute, can really have predicted those. Fish or Monfils, or Zvonareva or Agniezska Radwanska upset in the early rounds? It's pure guesswork. A pick-em. Things only get interesting after those mild surprises come to pass.
What we have now is a draw of 32 in either division, and all other things aside, that's probably the ideal number that maintains the mystery and challenge of single elimination, without the fat and flat spots we have those early rounds, which are awash in qualifiers and even wild cards of dubious worthiness.
So let's take a look at both singles draws:
On the women's side, No. 13 seed Jelena Jankovic seems a definite threat to No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki, although Christina McHale is just the kind of tough, steady, focused player who could lead Jankovic down the path of self-destruction. Jankovic is too good a player to languish in the second 10 for the rest of her career, though.
The fourth-round match-ups in this quarter could be Wozniacki v. Jankovic and defending champ Kim Clijsters v. Li Na—the woman Clijsters took down in last year's final. That's a pretty attractive set of matches, although the spoiler I see lurking in the wings is Daniela Hantuchova. If she gets a hot hand tonight, you can wave bye-bye to Aussie Kim.
In the second quarter, there appears little standing in the way of No. 3 Victoria Azarenka, who got by German upstart Mona Barthel in round three. But who else is going to beat her, Romina Oprandi? No. 8 Agniezska Radwanska?
The next quarter down features both No. 12 Serena Williams and No. 4 Maria Sharapova—along with No. 7 Zvonareva and two-time Grand Slam champ and No. 18 seed, Svetlana Kuznetsova. Would you be shocked if Zvonareva tagged Serena, and Kuznetsova (or her opponent tomorrow, Sabine Lisicki) took out Sharapova? Not me.
It would seem that the bottom quarter belongs to No. 2 Kvitova. But I would beware No. 9 Marion Bartoli, and I don't see any insurmontable obstacles in the way of the two women, especially with Vania King having eliminated dangerous Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
My picks for the semis? It's not my thing.
On the ATP side:
Forgive my skepticism, Rafa and Roger fans, but there seems to me only one way to beat Novak Djokovic these days, and it sure as hail ain't at his own game. Therefore, No. 23 Milos Raonic looms as the only prospective saviour to all those who live in fear and trembling during the reign of Novak the Impaler. I don't think Raonic is quite ready to do the deed, though, and Hewitt is just too old to fight and win such a big battle.
In the second quarter, I see little standing in the way of No. 4 Murray making it to the quarters, but an awful lot looming in his road once he gets there—in the form of the most dangerous contender after Murray, No. 6 Jo Wilfried Tsonga.
In quarter three, No. 11 Juan Martin del Potro has looked very strong. Roger Federer may get a chance to avenge that loss to Delpo in the 2009 U.S. Open final, but he must get by the massive serve of Ivo Karlovic and then deal with the winner of the Bernard Tomic v. Alexandr Dolgopolov match. Federer will need to pay attention from here on in, right up to the end. That's for certain.
The bottom quarter is in the hands of Rafael Nadal, but if Long John Isner can win a few tiebreakers and overcome Rafa's pal, Feliciano Lopez, the tall American could give Nadal fits. Likewise, No. 30 Kevin Anderson is as dangerous as Raonic or Karlovic, he just doesn't get the pub. But if No. 7 Tomas Berdych can survive him, he's got a good shot to get to the quarters.
Watch out for Anderson.