After two days of close calls, Federer takes the big fall in stunner Down Under

On Wednesday, Maria Sharapova saved two match points before pulling out a victory. On Thursday, Rafael Nadal battled illness and an inspired opponent to survive in five sets.

On Friday, Roger Federer couldn’t hold off the latest push by an aspiring upset artist. Andreas Seppi—a far more seasoned player than qualifiers Alexandra Panova and Tim Smyczek—out-dueled the world No. 2 in four sets of varying quality, 6-4, 7-6 (5), 4-6, 7-6 (5).

What was constant was the play of Seppi, a meat-and-potatoes pro who for the past four years has generally resided around the Top 40. It was at this stage of a Grand Slam tournament, the third round, when you precisely could have expected Seppi to crash into his ceiling. In 39 major appearances, he’d reached the fourth round just three times, and never beyond.

But on a day when Federer failed to find his peak form for extended stretches, Seppi’s steady diet of forehands and backhands took their toll on the 17-time Grand Slam champ.

“I just had an overall feeling that I couldn’t get the game going,” said Federer afterward. “I just somehow couldn’t play my best tennis and that as also due to Andreas playing great tennis.”

You could have spelled his last name “Fed-error” early on: The Swiss made 55 unforced errors, including 17 in an opening set that wasn’t as close as the score might indicate. But one of Federer’s most costly errors came on a ball he didn’t even hit. Serving down break point at 4-4, Federer forced Seppi to lunge his left and to hit a tame backhand stab. The ball floated in the air for what seemed like minutes, and it decided that the white sideline below would be a fine landing spot.

Federer would actually break Seppi right back, but all that did was reset the set to level terms. He still had to take it from Seppi, which for once proved to be difficult—Federer was 10-0 against the Italian. Though he led the second-set tiebreak 5-3, Federer lost the next four points to put himself in a significant hole.

“It just broke me to lose that second set,” a deflated Federer said. “I knew how important that second-set tiebreaker was.”

Considering Seppi’s shaky history against his opponent, and the belief that Federer—who won the most matches on tour in 2014—couldn’t possibly keep playing so poorly, the consensus was that this was still the crowd favorite’s match. The third set, won by Federer with ease, only amplified that belief. But the fourth set, which was the match’s best, tested that theory.

Seppi served efficiently and confidently, putting Federer under pressure after each hold. After an 11-game holding pattern, a Federer double fault made the score 5-6, 15-30. But Seppi failed to win that point, the following 30-30 point, and both subsequent deuce points. Whenever Seppi had a chance to reach match point, he couldn’t do enough.

That is, until 5-5 in the fourth-set tiebreaker. Federer had just passed Seppi at net with a backhand swipe for 5-4, and had two chances to reach set point of his own. He lost both points, each on his serve, to make it 5-6. Then Seppi won the final one:

Federer’s forehand into the corner was more than adequate, but Seppi’s running reply was the equivalent of pocket kings getting re-raised by pocket aces in Texas Hold ‘Em. “It was a winner so I don’t know how I could play a winner,” said Seppi during his on-court interview about a memorable match point.

It was a tough remark to explain, just as this result is. Federer dropped a set in his previous match to another Italian, Simone Bolelli, but the form that nearly brought him to No. 1 last year appeared to make the journey to Australia. He won his 1,000th career match by winning the title in Brisbane, but Federer’s main event lasted just five days—it’s the first time he won’t be in the Aussie Open semifinals since 2003.

The loss also took a little air out of a loaded fourth quarter, which includes Dimitrov, Andy Murray, and, as of this writing, Nick Kyrgios. All three now have a greater chance of going deep. So, of course, does Seppi. But does he believe he can?

“It's always a special moment to play Roger,” said Seppi. “I know him a long time. It's different than against anyone else.”

It sounds like the 30-year-old veteran believes he’s already won his Slam.