From Alcaraz to Swiatek, and more: 5 things to watch for at the 2024 Cincinnati Open

The past week’s events in Montreal and Toronto haven’t been among the season’s most fortunate. They started two days after the Olympics ended, which meant that several big-name players, including Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Iga Swiatek, were absent, and the tournament schedule was cut from seven days to six. The two cities were then inundated by rain. An entire day of play was cancelled, and a few third-round matches weren’t held until Saturday.

To which all of us may want to repeat NFL coach Bill Belichick’s famous catchphrase: “On to Cincinnati.”

The newly renamed Cincinnati Open—Western & Southern is gone from the title—seems destined to fare better. While it has also lost a day, it does have Alcaraz and Swiatek. Only Djokovic, the defending men’s champion, remains on the sidelines after his gold-medal effort. The weather, at least for the first three days, looks promising.

As the tours make their turn toward the US Open, here are five things to look for at its final big tune-up.

What can we expect from a returning Alcaraz and Swiatek?

The last time we saw the Spaniard and the Pole, they were smiling bravely on the medal podiums in Paris. Each had won titles at Roland Garros two months earlier, and each was favored to win there again. Instead, they walked away with a silver and a bronze, respectively. Which means neither of these Slams champs will be riding quite as high, confidence-wise, as they were earlier in the summer.

But it may also mean they’ll be looking to put those results behind them as quickly as possible. Either way, they’ll still be among the favorites as they chase their first titles in Cincy. Swiatek’s quarterfinal opponent may be Jasmine Paolini, a woman she beat easily in the Roland Garros final. Alcaraz, who had championship points against Djokovic here last year, won’t have Djokovic to deal with, and his other major rival, top seed Jannik Sinner, hasn’t been quite as formidable recently as he was earlier in the season.

Several top players, including Sinner, Aryna Sabalenka, Coco Gauff, and Daniil Medvedev, will look to end title slumps.

The four players mentioned above are all in the Top 5, and have all won major titles. It’s hard to say any of them has had a bad season in 2024. But none are brimming with confidence at the moment.

Sinner, after dominating from January to April, has won just one title, in Halle. In his loss to Andrey Rublev in Montreal, he appeared to be nursing a hip injury from earlier in the year.

Gauff, champion in Cincy in 2023, hasn’t won since Auckland in January. She’s coming off a medal-free Olympics, and a dismally one-sided loss to Diana Shnaider in Toronto. A year ago, she was on a meteoric rise with new coach Brad Gilbert. Now, she seems in danger of heading in the opposite direction, and she has champion’s points to defend in Cincy and at the US Open.

Sabalenka doesn’t have a title since the Australian Open. She won two rounds in D.C. and Toronto, but that’s hardly up to the standard she has set for herself.

Medvedev, incredibly, hasn’t won a tournament since Rome last spring, and just suffered early losses in Paris and Montreal.

The good news is that they all like hard courts, and they’re all seeded in the Top 4, so they’ll avoid facing the best competition until the semifinals.

How do the top seeds’ draws look?

If form holds, here’s who each of the Top 4 men would face:

Sinner: Griekspoor/Humbert/Rublev/Zverev/Alcaraz

Alcaraz: Popyrin/Rune/Ruud/Medvedev/Sinner

Zverev: Khachanov/Korda/Dimitrov/Sinner/Alcaraz

Medvedev: Navone/Musetti/Hurkacz/Sinner/Alcaraz

Maybe Zverev’s is the preferable path, if you had to choose one, with Dimitrov being the weakest of the four potential quarterfinal opponents? Overall, though, it seems like relative party, and the same is true on the women’s side.

Who are the dark horses, and what are the early-round matches to watch?

Among the women, Badosa, champion in D.C. last week and former world No. 2, stands out as a possible upset artist. She could play Gauff in the third round.

The Olympic gold and silver medalists, Zheng and Vekic, return this week. Will they be burned out, or feeling confident?

Emma Navarro put a tough Olympics behind her with a good run in Toronto. Her dad also owns the Cincy Open, which might count for something.

On the men’s side, Rublev and Hurkacz are coming off strong performances in Montreal; Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz should be over their post-bronze lulls; and Sebastian Korda seems to have found his summer hard-court groove.

The three seeds in Swiatek’s quarter are Marta Kostyuk, Emma Navarrro, and Jasmine Paolini. Each is having a career season, but none of them has beaten Iga.

No. 2 Gauff has a couple of semi-dangerous opponents nearby in Anna Kalanskaya and Paula Badosa. And she has a potentially very dangerous quarterfinal foe in Olympic gold medalist Zheng Qinwen.

No. 3 Sabalenka may face Victoria Azarenka in the third round, and Jelena Ostapenko in the quarters. She’s 8-1 against them combined.

No. 4 Elena Rybakina could get Olympic silver medalist Donna Vekic in the third round, and Jessica Pegula in the quarters.

First-round matches to watch

• Zhizhen Zhang vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. It’s a mouthful, too
• Karen Khachanov vs. Francisco Cerundolo
• Ben Shelton vs. Reilly Opelka
• Frances Tiafoe vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
• Holger Rune vs. Matteo Berrettini
• Navarro vs. Mirra Andreeva
• Badosa vs. Peyton Stearns
• Vekic vs. Beatriz Haddad Maia
• Karolina Muchova vs. Dayana Yastremska

Who’s going to win?

Men

Semifinals: Rublev d. Korda; Alcaraz d. Hurkacz

Final: Alcaraz d. Rublev

Women

Semifinals: Sabalenka d. Swiatek; Zheng d. Pegula

Final: Sabalenka d. Zheng