by Pete Bodo
When you consider that the BNP Paribas Open combined event has two draws of 96 and 32 seeds in each, all of whom receive first-round byes, it's pretty hard to resist the conclusion that this is a typical one-week tournament with an expanded cast that offers opportunity and hope for the wretched of the earth, the have-nots, while demanding little extra from the haves.
The winner at Indian Wells, or the upcoming Sony Ericsson Open in Miami, plays the same number of matches (six) as the champion at the one-week Cincinnati, or Madrid, Masters 1000 event. The only difference is that in the desert and on the Key (Biscayne), the top 32 players sit out the first round in which those aforementioned wretched battle it out for the privilege of becoming cannon fodder for the big guns. It's kind of like a magic trick, and these two spring hard-court Masters events in the U.S. have done a good job creating the impression that they're somehow bigger than the one-week Masters events.
The top players like this "cast of thousands" approach because, while it demands that they show up to work a few days earlier than at a one-week tournament, they also start at least one day before they might at a Cincy or Rome, and thus get at least one full day's more rest somewhere along the way.
But now we've winnowed out the wheat from the chaff; and what we have in store makes it seem worth the wait. The pending ATP match-ups strike me as particularly mouth-watering, given that these are all third-round matches, with the seeds having benefited from byes in round one:
Monday Matches
!Young Alexandr Dolgopolov (No. 20) v. Juan Martin del Potro: The obvious contrast here—between the size and power of del Potro and the quickness and shotmaking ability of Dolgopolov—lifts this one above the norm for a third-round match. Dolgopolov has been on the rise since Australia, and even though he's significantly older than Raonic at 22, he seems part of—the elder statesman of—a generation of fresh new players who appear bent on being part of the mix this year. This will be a good barometer of the state of DelPo's comeback, and it will also show Dolgopolov what he's up against if he hopes to build on his tour ranking of No. 23.
Tommy Robredo (No. 25) v. Donald Young: Both of these guys scoot around the court like madmen, and since Robredo's level has gradually dropped in the past year or two, an upset is within reach for Young Donald. It's hard to imagine a more entertaining match-up, and Young is bound to be all puffed up following his great win over No. 5 seed Andy Murray.
I also like the Somdev Devvarman v. Xavier Malisse match; Devvarman waylaid Marcos Baghdatis (No. 19) and Malisse accounted for the scalp of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (No. 15). Both should be riding an emotional high that is bound to show on court.
Tuesday Matches
Stanislas Wawrinka (No. 12) v. Marin Cilic (No. 17): Wait, are we still in dump-on-Marin-Cilic month? Never mind, Cilic is back in the Top 20 and, except for the Australian Open (where he lost in fourth round to Rafael Nadal), he hasn't faltered before the quarterfinals. That could be bad news for Wawrinka, who's ranked No. 14 but is coming off a pair of disappointing losses in his last two tournaments (Dolgopolov tagged him in Acapulco and 31-year old Juan Ignacio Chela slaughtered him, 2 and 2, on the clay of Buenos Aires). Can you hear Wawrinka's fingernails, grinding and rasping as he slides down down the face of the cliff? Wawrinka leads the H2H by 4-2, but Cilic won the only two times they played in 2010, and they haven't squared off yet this year.
Andy Roddick (No. 8) v. John Isner (No. 30): What are the odds that Roddick would have drawn two countrymen and Davis Cup teammates in his first two matches? James Blake survived Aussie qualifier Chris Guccione, but Roddick put the kibosh on his comeback effort, winnning 6-3, 7-5. Now he's got to face Isner, who won the last time they played (at the U.S. Open of 2009) and could even up the H2H at 2-all with a win at Indian Wells.
Ryan Harrison v. Milos Raonic: Oh, sure, everyone has been looking ahead to a potential clash between Raonic and No. 2 seed Roger Federer, which is shaping up as something like Raonic's tennis Bar Mitzvah. But the 20-year old Canadian needs to get by 18-year old Harrison first. The way things work these days, with so many juniors playing "up," these two have a history despite their age difference. Harrison and Raonic met three times in the juniors, with Harrison winning twice.
But everyone, including Harrison, knows that that Raonic is a player of a different caliber now—he has been since the Australian Open. He's become a benchmark for the Harrison's, Dimitrov's and Tomic's of this world, as well as to juniors who accumulate exceptional records and seem destined to inherit the earth (see "Y" for Young, Donald). Sometimes, a few elements just fall into place and suddenly you've got a John McEnroe or Pete Sampras on your hands, without anyone quite knowing how it happened.
Raonic put up another quality win the other day, taking out former Indian Wells finalist (and No. 13 seed) Mardy Fish. And Harrison, to his credit, has reached the third round at a Masters 1000 for the first time in his young career. This will be fun to watch, although I'm not sure I'd read a whole lot into the result—where, after all, was Raonic at 18?
Tomas Berdych (No. 7) v. Thomaz Bellucci (No. 26): This one may not have as many subtle, psychological undertones as some of the the other match-ups I'm treating here, but both of these guys have great-looking games and could produce what you might call the Platonic idea of a great tennis match. Its easy to forget that Bellucci is still just 23, roughly two years younger than Berdych. They've met just once before, and that was over a year ago in Brisbane. Berdych came through in that one, but by 7-6 (3) in the third set. If you remember how long it takes some players to become mature competitors (Berdych is a great example), you can see why we might have an upset in the making here.