*Ed. Note: Bodo has gone away on vacation until the 16th. Until then, resident alien life forms have taken his place as pundit.
*Dear USA Tennis Fans,
The year 2006 will mark the departure of Andre Agassi, one of our great champions. I will not be remarking on Andre's chances at the Open. Instead, let's consider the chances of Andy Roddick and James Blake, Andre's successors.
In mid-August, we find ourselves in the middle of the US Open Series with two Master's events to be played over the final three weeks leading up to the USO. The world's #1 and #2 will be returning to action, hopefully taking on our guys in the later rounds.
These tournaments can be great preparation for the Open itself or it can put excess wear and tear on a player. So, what are Roddick and Blake's chances? Here is my very biased account..
Andy Roddick
2005 US Open Results: First round loss to Muller
Andy has brought on board Jimmy Connors, ostensibly to give pointers on Roddick's backhand, return of serve, and the way he competes. Early returns from this collaboration have been heartening; Andy was runner-up at Indianapolis, falling to James Blake after a third-set tiebreak. This result shows that Roddick's game can stand up to that of another power player in the top ranks.
Although Andy's mojo is still at large, his game is coming around. Andy will outdo his performance of 2005 if his fitness level improves. However, his withdrawal from the Rogers Cup this week due to a sore back does not bode well.
Roddick needs to notch a handful of victories on his bedpost in the three weeks before the main event. Against increasingly stiff competition during the intervening Master's Series event in Cincinnati, it is a true test of the former champion's mettle. He'll need to find his game.
Roddick is serving huge, as always; it will be an advantage on the fast courts at Flushing Meadows. His backhand down the line shot looked like a weapon during the run to the final in Indy. Roddick is taking the ball earlier and staying closer to the baseline, clearly showing a quantum shift in strategy.
Instead of blasting opponents with his forehand and "setting them up" with his backhand, Roddick is now dangerous off both wings. If he begins returning agressively, he can avoid losses in close matches like those at the Open in 2004 (v. Johansson) and 2005 (v. Muller).
Prediction:
Roddick will play in the quarterfinals against Agassi, with the outcome in doubt at this time. A coin flip, if you will. Andy will not be around for the semifinals or final this year.
James Blake
2005 U.S. Open Results: Quarterfinal loss to Andre Agassi
Blake's favorite surface is hard courts -- and it shows in his results in the past twelve months. James has established himself as the best player in the USA with his wins over Andy Roddick at Queen's Club and in Indianapolis. I like Blake's chances to go deep into the second week.
Since his return from various injuries and family tragedy, Blake has been riding high. He has beaten Rafael Nadal twice, taken sets off of Roger Federer, won three titles, and improved his ranking to a career-best #5 in the world.
James can do something no one else can do: hit winners on Nadal. His flat forehand blasts through the court, stripping Nadal's wheels. Even Federer cannot achieve this result against Nadal.
Blake's ranking may fall next week after a third-round loss to the newly resurgent Marat Safin in Washington, D.C. However, there were positive aspects of Blake's game in evidence during his loss; his return of service, forehand rally strokes, and serve were strong and pushed Safin throughout their two tiebreak sets.
Unfortunately for all of us US KAD's, Blake did not maintain the momentum he was building with the win in Indianapolis. The next three weeks will impact his USO seeding and give us an idea of how hot James is and how deep he can go in the Open draw.
Last year Blake won at New Haven just prior to the start of the Open and he built on that success. Facing Nadal and/or Federer in the next group of events will be the litmus test for Blake's continued surge to the top of the rankings.
Prediction:
Best Case Scenario: Blake reaches the semifinals of Federer's bracket or the finals of Nadal's bracket in the US Open.
Worst Case Scenario: Blake goes out in an earlier round, losing to Safin, Roddick, or Murray - dangerous, seeded floaters in the draw.
I believe these two players have many productive years left. Perhaps other US players will step up during that time. If not, we'll still have plenty to cheer for at the Open.
Enjoy the 2006 US Open!
Go USA!
Sincerely,
Mark Eckley