Aryna Sabalenka takes aim at Iga Swiatek's dominance of the European clay season

By the time Aryna Sabalenka lined up for what would be her final shot at the Miami Open on Saturday, the title was, for all intents and purposes, already hers.

Over the previous 88 minutes, the WTA’s best player had pounded her opponent, Jessica Pegula, with her customary barrage of heavily spun ground strokes, and worn down her will power to the point where the American was muttering—with a few choice words thrown in—about how often Sabalenka was cleaning the lines with her shots. She led 7-5, 5-2, and Pegula, in a last, futile attempt to rush the net, had given a good look at a backhand pass.

Sabalenka had an opening down the line, and she could have played it safe and simply directed it there. Instead, she took a full-blooded cut at the ball. It flew so fast that Pegula could barely get her racquet in place for a volley before it was on her strings. She caught it late, the ball flew wildly out of the court, and it looked like the racquet might fly out of her hand as well.

That shot felt like a good representation of the way Sabalenka matches up against Pegula, and, on most days, the rest of the tour. She hits harder and heavier, she tries to dictate with virtually every swing, and at this stage of her career, there’s nothing she can’t do with the ball. Pegula, who is 2-7 against Sabalenka and has lost three finals to her in the last seventh months, sums up the experience this way:

“It’s tough with her,” Pegula says. “I mean, she’s hitting her forehand and her backhand really well, ripping the ball, changing the direction of the ball, being really aggressive.”

According to Pegula, though, it isn’t just Sabalenka’s power that makes her such a challenge. It’s the more subtle elements that she has added, and that make her attack more complete, and hard to prepare for.

“I still feel there are other girls I have played where they hit harder,” Pegula says of Sabalenka. “But her first two balls are really good. She’s really good at being aggressive off the first ball and not letting you kind of dictate the point.

“I think her movement’s gotten a lot better, and then she added more slice, drop shots, she’s gotten kind of better at those intangible shots. ... There’s a lot of things she really does well.”

Sabalenka wasn’t perfect. She was broken four times, and Pegula was able to surprise her with her kick serve. But instead of getting rattled or breaking down, as she did in the Indian Wells final two weeks ago, Sabalenka dug deeper into her repertoire. Rather than try to hit through Pegula, she changed the height of the ball with more topspin and drew errors. Rather than go big on every first serve, she used high kicks to keep the ball out of Pegula’s strike zone.

Read more: Aryna Sabalenka has now won 23 of her last 24 matches in the United States following Miami triumph

I had the mentality that no matter what happens, if she’s gonna break me, I had the mentality to stay there, to focus on myself, to fight for every point no matter what. I didn’t want to lose another final, to be honest. Aryna Sabalenka

Then, in the match’s most important game, with Pegula serving at 5-6 in the first set, Sabalenka put it all together. She hit a delicate drop for 0-15, a forehand return winner for 0-30, a swing-volley winner for 0-40, and another unreturnable forehand to break for the set.

“It’s never easy matches against her,” Sabalenka said of Pegula. “I think every time we play against each other, it’s all about those few key points in each set.”

More important than the opponent for Sabalenka was the round: This was her third big final of 2025, and she had lost the previous two, at the Australian Open and Indian Wells. She was the favorite in each match, but she had let two players who were outside the Top 10, Madison Keys and Mirra Andreeva, take those titles from her in third sets. She was ready to do whatever it took not to let that happen again on Saturday.

“Going into this match, I had the mentality that no matter what happens, if she’s gonna break me, I had the mentality to stay there, to focus on myself, to fight for every point no matter what,” Sabalenka said.

“I didn’t want to lose another final, to be honest. It’s really tough to lose in the final. So if someone would say that, I’d be, like, OK, it’s going to be a battle, I’m ready for that.”

After three months, Sabalenka has re-staked her claim to No. 1. Perhaps more intriguingly, she’ll come into the clay season as the tour’s best player for the first time. Since 2022, this has been Iga Swiatek’s time to dominate. Which sets up an interesting conflict for the next two months: While Swiatek is the best clay-courter until proven otherwise, Sabalenka is the best player overall.

Sabalenka says she’s ready to make the surface switch, and that coming into it with her first Miami title will make the transition much more fun.

“I think physically I’m ready to go,” she says. “Physically I’m strong, and I’m not rushing the point and I know I can stay in the point for how long I need. I think that’s the key, because I think I have got everything to be a good player on the clay courts.”

Sabalenka is already a solid clay-courter. She has made seven finals on the surface, and won two titles. She’s just 1-5 against Swiatek, but she had match points in their Madrid final a year ago. Maybe most important, the all-around game that Pegula praised should serve Sabalenka well on clay, where the slice and the drop shot are more useful.

For the moment, though, Sabalenka will cross that clay bridge when she comes to it.

“I think that we’re gonna focus on—I don’t know actually,” she said with a laugh. “I haven't talked to my team. But I can assume we’re going to focus on my fitness and, yeah, probably on my fitness.”

Either way, after Miami, “I’ll just have good vibes only for the next couple of weeks of preparation for the clay courts.”