Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Where to watch, and who will win, their Miami Open final

Where to Watch

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Preview and Pick

March has been a tough month for people who make tennis predictions.

In recent years, the Sunshine Double has been a time of year when the cream tends to rise: Carlos Alcaraz, Iga Swiatek, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev have all won in Indian Wells and Miami this decade. In 2025, though, the two tournaments have been sites of upheaval. Jack Draper, Mirra Andreeva and Alexandra Eala, to name just three, have sprung surprises, while Alcaraz and Swiatek—as well as the suspended Sinner—have failed to defend titles.

But a Sabalenka-Pegula final in Miami must have been predictable, because this was the rare March result that I got right, even before the tournament began. Coming in, it seemed to me that Sabalenka, after losing two finals she probably should have won, in Melbourne and Indian Wells, would be determined to finish the job in Miami. As for Pegula, her title run in Austin a month ago made me feel like a bigger result was coming soon for her, and she has generally played well in Miami in the past.

So rather than a new face in this final, we have two familiar ones, two Top 5 players, and a rematch of last year’s title matches at the Cincinnati Open and US Open.

Sabalenka won those two encounters, and she leads the head-to-head between them 6-2. She’s also coming off three straight-set wins over strong opponents, Danielle Collins, Zheng Qinwen and Jasmine Paolini.

“I definitely say this is one of the best matches of the season so far,” Sabalenka said after her 6-2, 6-2 win over Paolini in the semifinals. “I felt like I was in the zone.”

Pegula has seen enough of Sabalenka in this form to know that conquering her on Saturday will be an uphill climb. In fact, she sounds like she’s pleased just to have made it this far, and isn’t expecting much more.

“It’s going to be tough,” Pegula says. “Hopefully I can get the better of her here. That would be awesome. But, you know, I’m also really proud that, you know, I can put myself up there with one of the best hard-court players in the world. Making another final of a 1000 is huge.”

For Pegula, continuing to serve well will be a key.

“I do feel like I’m serving a little bit better,” she said after beating Eala in a tight semifinal. “Hopefully I can serve well Saturday. I think that’s something you have to do against [Sabalenka]. She returns really well.”

“I have been returning well,” Pegula continued, “so I always feel like even though she’s one of the best servers in the world, I can give myself a chance maybe to break her. But she’s tough. She’s playing with a lot of confidence. She likes, I think, a little bit quicker hard court, as well, playing one-two punch, playing an aggressive game.”

Pegula says she’ll “try to learn from the last couple of matches” with Sabalenka. Both times, it took her a set to find her way into the rallies and start believing she could hang with the WTA’s No. 1. And she should believe. Despite her losing record to Sabalenka, Pegula has the type of counterpunching skills, and penetrating groundstrokes, that can throw her off and irritate her. It will be important for Pegula to make an impact, and create some doubt in Sabalenka’s mind, earlier in the match than she did in Cincy and New York.

If their last two meetings didn’t show the American she can win, they did show her “I’ll get some chances if I play some good tennis.”

For Sabalenka, a third straight big-final defeat in 2025 would be damaging, so her motivation level should be high. Can Pegula match that motivation and not settle for being happy with making a 1000 final? I picked Sabalenka to win the event before it began, so I won’t abandon her now. Winner: Sabalenka

Betting Odds

Sabalenka is a -325 moneyline favorite; Pegula is a +250 underdog.

To win the first set, Sabalenka is -275 and Pegula +190

(Odds from BetMGM as of 12:00 pm ET on Friday, March 28.)

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