Aryna Sabalenka vs. Zheng Qinwen: Where to Watch, Miami Open Preview, Betting Odds

Where to Watch

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The winner of this match will play either No. 6 seed Jasmine Paolini or unseeded Magda Linette in the semifinals.

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Miami Open Match Preview

Sabalenka would seem to be the next mountain for Zheng to climb.

The 22-year-old native of China has accomplished a lot in the past two years, from reaching a Grand Slam final, to winning Olympic gold, to beating Iga Swiatek for the first time, to making it into the Top 10. But so far Sabalenka has been a bridge to far for her: Zheng his 0-5 against the world No. 1, and has won just one set in those matches. At the US Open and the WTA Finals in 2024, Zheng made little headway in lopsided losses.

That may be because the two women play similar games, attacking with heavy topspin forehands and two-handed backhands, but Sabalenka just plays it better. Her serve is stronger and more consistent. Her ground strokes are hit harder and more accurately. And Zheng is more prone to having days when nothing works—that’s basically what happened when she played Sabalenka at the Open last year.

But Zheng is also prone to hot streaks where she can challenge anyone. She began 2025 exceptionally slowly, going 1-3 through the start of March, and ceding her place as the WTA’s next big thing to Mirra Andreeva. But starting in Indian Wells, Zheng has shown signs of her old self. She won three rounds there before losing to Swiatek, and has won three rounds in Miami, all in straight sets. I wouldn’t expect her to throw in a total clunker on Tuesday.

But I wouldn’t expect her to win, either. It will take a special performance for her to beat Sabalenka, who has mostly looked sharp during the Sunshine Double, and who seems like she she’s tired of not winning tournaments. Winner: Sabalenka—Steve Tignor

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Betting Odds

Sabalenka is a -325 moneyline favorite; Qinwen is a +240 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 9:10 p.m. ET on Monday, March 24.)

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