At this time next year, what are we saying about Ben Shelton?

As we make our way toward the 2024 season—which begins Friday, December 29 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

Question Nine: At this time next year, what are we saying about Ben Shelton?

Scroll down past this article to read more Burning Questions on 2024.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: Let’s give credit where it’s due: 21-year-old Shelton has proven that he’s smart about his business during his breakthrough year.

While many players in his position would have been off chasing the latest shiny things, Shelton has kept his circle small and his focus narrow. He has stayed off the ATP Tour’s coaching carousel, opting instead to stick with dad Bryan Shelton—a former pro and Georgia Tech and University of Florida coach—and he didn’t exactly cash in after his run to the US Open semifinals, keeping his list of endorsements manageable.

These are mature decisions that point to Shelton playing the long game, and combined with his aggressive game’s natural advantages—especially that booming lefty serve—I wouldn’t be surprised to see him settle into the ATP’s Top 10 or reach another Grand Slam semifinal in 2024.

Self-belief is half the battle, and as long as the charismatic American continues to play fearless and confident tennis, he can impose his big-hitting against anyone. So far, his biggest weaknesses have been his sometimes-baffling shot selection and lazy footwork—neither of these feels like a fatal flaw in his game, and will surely improve with experience.

As long as Shelton avoids rushing his progress by comparing himself to the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune—his younger yet more established peers—he’s well poised to keep hitting even more milestones.

Your mileage may vary on Shelton’s considerable on-court swagger, but it’s hard to deny the guy is box office.

JON LEVEY: We’ll be wondering if Shelton can crack the Top 5. The big lefty will probably still be searching for his first major title, although flirting with the prospect more regularly. He will increasingly look like the he’s got the confidence and broad shoulders to carry the mantle for the American men. Greater consistency in 2024 could easily land him inside the Top 10. However, climbing the next step will prove a more difficult hurdle to scale.

Shelton already seems to have the big match gene, which isn’t always apparent in a player his age. It’s the day-to-day that needs improvement. In 2023, he had poor results on clay (2-7) and little impact on grass (2-3). The former is not too surprising, but given his physical gifts the latter is definitely a head-scratcher. While hard courts will remain his primary area of expertise, both of those records should show noticeable improvement this coming season. After all, a 140-mph serve doesn’t discriminate. And becoming more of an all-surface threat will help his ascension up the ranks.

How far he goes may come down to the “I” word: intangibles. Your mileage may vary on Shelton’s considerable on-court swagger, but it’s hard to deny the guy is box office. His dynamic shot-making and charismatic presence bring an electricity to his matches. Pro sports are entertainment, and he makes tennis more entertaining. Even if that’s the extent of what we’re saying about him this time next year, that looks pretty good on a resume.

JOEL DRUCKER: There’s a good chance that 12 months from now, Ben Shelton will have hit at least one serve that exceeds 150 mph. Maybe even 160 mph. Sprinkle in several incredible running forehands and a smattering of volleys that will conjure up memories of those great leaps taken by Boris Becker.

But here’s the big question for Shelton in ’24: Can he generate quality results week in and week out? Following Shelton’s electrifying run to the Australian Open quarterfinals in January, his match record leading into the US Open was 7-18. And then in New York, he went all the way to the semis. The hope is that a year from now we’ll have seen signs of more consistency – a fistful of quarterfinals, perhaps even better result.

We might also in ’24 see a few less displays of overt emotion as Shelton continues his transition from the high-octane world of college tennis into life as a sustainable pro. But there’s no need to thoroughly muzzle Shelton’s passion for competing. This sizzling lefty’s mix of skill and energy can in time turn him into as much of a crowd-pleaser as Carlos Alcaraz. I’m not saying that Shelton will eventually be ranked number one in the world and win two Grand Slam singles titles. That could happen, but he’s got many more miles to go. Here’s hoping he continues to sprint his way through them.

Stay tuned for Wednesday's series conclusion when our hottest takes are revealed.