by Pete Bodo
Boy, for a guy who did a lot of complaining about the length of the season not so long ago, Andy Murray is playing some pretty fresh-looking tennis. This isn't an unusual thing, come autumn. Murray ought to remember that old saw, Be Careful What You Wish For. . .
In fact, Murray is emerging as a kind of Atlas of the ATP tour now that the Grand Slams are done. Perhaps because he was shut out once again when his fellow stars shared the major booty, he's been on a rampage in the fall—although this current hot streak goes all the way back to mid-August and the Cincinnati Masters 1000 (where he won the title). Murray now is 21-1 going back to the summer, having just won the Rakuten Japan Open.
With Roger Federer resolved to skip the Asian swing entirely, and Novak Djokovic making the same decision—albeit his sore back provides an actual doctor's note—it was up to Rafael Nadal and Murray to carry this fall circuit. But would anyone have thought that it would be Andy, not Rafa, doing the heavy lifting right up to the grand finale in Shanghai?
Nadal has played just one tournament since the U.S. Open; Murray has already played two. Nadal is 6-1 (we're including Davis Cup wins) since the last major; Murray is 11-0 since he lost in the semifinals of the U.S. Open. But most important of all, the man who last beat Murray in New York is the player Murray triumphed over in Tokyo—Nadal.
And that's what suddenly makes this tear by Murray look like, perhaps, something more than a nice streak, put together conveniently against players nobody doubts he can, and should, beat, at a time when nobody is looking. In taking down the top seed in Tokyo, No. 2 seed Murray reversed a trend that submarined his chances to win a Grand Slam this year since he came close to bagging that elusive first major in Australia way back in February. Like some mustache-twirling cartoon villain, Nadal has been there to stop Murray in the semifinals of the last three majors. If you had to draw a thought bubble over Murray's head right after the U.S. Open, it might have said: Drats! Foiled again!
That win was Nadal's fifth consecutive triumph over Murray, to go with the five consecutive wins Nadal posted at the very beginning of their rivalry (if a 13-5 H2H edge by Nadal allows us to use the word). But in the middle portion of the history it was a different story, and that's the narrative Murray hopes to rekindle. In that period, which lasted almost two years starting with the 2008 U.S. Open semifinals, it really was a rivalry, and Murray won four of the seven matches they played. I wonder how many times this past year Murray has had to remind himself, You've beaten Nadal in a Grand Slam semifinal before, surely you can do it again?
Well, Tokyo wasn't the semifinal of a major. It was the final of an ATP 500 event (the title is worth just 500 ranking points, half the number offered by one of the elite Masters events). But the way Murray played in his 3-6, 6-2, 6-0 fightback win had to be encouraging for him. At times, Murray can be a bit too cute, lying in wait at the baseline to counter-punch his way a win. That works against all but the best players, and it's a particularly foolish strategy to pursue against Nadal, who's an excellent counter counter-puncher. When Murray is playing possum and Nadal is rolling through the games, you want to scream at Murray—Get out of here with that stuff, can't you see it doesn't work against this guy?
But in Tokyo, Murray found the right balance between offense and defense, between the patience that comes so naturally to him and the aggression that adds sting to his game, between passive resistance and active challenge. Between the cute and the effective. Did the guy have a career set against Nadal? Sure he did. But that's what you need to do to win majors in a era when players like Nadal, Djokovic and Federer are afoot. Just demonstrating that you can do it, to yourself as much as anyone else, suggests that you can. . . do it again.
Is there any any chance that Murray can put up another 6-0 set against Nadal—with the loss of just four points—in the final of another tournament? Mathematically there certainly is, but we're unlikely to see so overpowering a performance again. But what's wrong with winning a decisive set 6-3, with the loss of, oh, 650 points?
The most relevant caveat that you can hang on this match is that it occurred in the fall, traditionally a time when Nadal throws a few stinkers into his resume. Last year, Nadal suffered one of the more sensational upsets of the year when he was beaten by Guillermo Garcia-Lopez in the semis at Bangkok (the tournament Murray won jusr before Tokyo), and he won just two matches at the big Asian Masters event before he was Shanghaied in the third round by Jurgen Melzer. In 2009, Nadal lost in the semis of Beijing to Marin Cilic, and to Nikolay Daveydenko in the Shanghai final. The only Asian circuit fall event Nadal has won over the last three years is Tokyo in 2010 (d. Monfils) although he can add another title this week in Shanghai.
Nadal has never won a fall Masters event in Asia, nor on the indoor hard courts of Paris (the final Masters event of the year), although he's been the runner-up at both. Overall, he's 14-5 in post-U.S. Open Masters play. Murray is the defending champion in Shanghai and he's 13-5 overall at the fall Masters (both men also won Madrid once, back when it was played in the fall). And Nadal is 8-8 at the ATP World Tour Finals, which he has yet to win. Murray also lacks a season-ending trophy, but he's 7-5 in matches there.
It's pretty clear that at this time of the year, Nadal is prone to hiccups and glitches, which is one reason Murray is in his rear-view mirror. It's probably a case of mental fatigue as much as court surface or the quality of the competition, but that hardly matters. The reality is that if Murray is going to position himself to win majors, he needs to feel he can beat anyone who gets in his way. At some level, he already believes that—he wouldn't be ranked where he is if that wasn't the case. But a little documentation and personal history never hurts, and that's why this is an excellent time for Murray to put a few Ws over Nadal into his psychic bank.
That's one reason this Shanghai tournament this week is important, despite the absences of Federer and Djokovic. Granted, No. 1 Djokovic is playing superlative tennis, but get Nadal out of Murray's road and his chance of winning a major skyrockets. It's also why, suddenly, this tournament promises to be a lot more interesting than it might have been had Nadal added that sixth straight win over Murray in Tokyo.