ATP Beijing Final Preview: Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner renew bourgeoning rivalry

Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

“I just hope tomorrow is going to be a good match from both of us,” Jannik Sinner said when he was asked about his China Open final with Carlos Alcaraz.

Judging by their form over the past week, there’s good reason for the Italian, and the rest of us, to hope that they can, on Wednesday, generate the electricity of their best showdowns from the past.

Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set in Beijing. That includes a fairly straightforward win over Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals. The Olympic hangover that laid Alcaraz low at the US Open has passed, and he hasn’t shown any ill effects from the long flight and quick turnaround after Laver Cup. In fact, his debut success in that competition may have reenergized him.

Sinner had a couple of potential obstacles to overcome at this event. First, he hadn’t played since winning the US Open three weeks earlier, and either rust or a letdown seemed possible. Then he learned that WADA has appealed his recent doping exoneration with the goal of suspending him for one to two years.

As we saw in New York, one of Sinner’s strengths is an ability to block out negative distractions once he’s on the court. In Beijing, we’ve also seen another of his fortes: His unflappable nature under pressure. Twice he’s been down a set, and twice’s he’s turned the match around right away and won in three.

All of which means we have the final we’d hoped for, between the two young players who have split the season’s four majors evenly between them. One of these guys will be the men’s Player of the Year, and this meeting may play a part in determining that honor.

Jannik is the best player in the world right now....As I always said, I really like the battles, the toughest match facing the best players in the world. So if I play against Jannik in the final, I will be happy. Carlos Alcaraz

There are reasons to like both men’s chances. Alcaraz leads their head-to-head 5-4, and he has won both of their 2024 meetings, at Indian Wells and Roland Garros. But Sinner won in straight sets when they played on this court in the Beijing semifinals a year ago. He has also been No. 1 in the world since June, and is riding a 16-match win streak, all of which happened on hard courts.

I’ve always thought of Alcaraz having a higher ceiling and lower floor than Sinner, and I think that’s still true—though Sinner’s best is nearly as good as Alcaraz’s now. One positive sign for Alcaraz was his ability to recover quickly from a drip in his level against Medvedev. He was broken a couple of times in the first set, and on other days that may have led to an extended, error-filled rough patch from him. But this time he managed to break back right away.

Alcaraz liked it, too.

“I’m really happy that I didn’t lose my focus too long in the first set,” he said. “I recovered it as soon as I got broken, and I’m really happy that at the end of the set I was able to play really good tennis in the return game.”

The thing is, when Sinner is in top form, the way he seems to be, there may not be time for Alcaraz to have any dips or concentration losses at all.

Sinner began his rise to No. 1 with his title run in Beijing last year. He’s still at the top today, and I’ll pick him to defend that title. And like the Italian said, I’ll also hope that they can come together to produce some of that old Sinnaraz magic along the way.

Winner: Sinner