ATP Doha Final Preview: Andrey Rublev vs. Jack Draper

Andrey Rublev vs. Jack Draper

Draper gets full-time media coverage in his home country, but he still manages to fly under the radar at his best events. That’s what happened when he snuck into the semifinals with little fanfare at the US Open last summer, and it’s what has happened this week in Doha, where he has made his first final of 2025.

Draper didn’t get here by upsetting anyone; he hasn’t faced a seed yet. Instead, he got here by beating the guys who pulled the upsets. Matteo Berrettini defeated Novak Djokovic, and Jiri Lehecka beat Carlos Alcaraz, before Draper took them both out 6-3 in the third set. Draper is playing his first tournament since retiring with a hip injury at the Australian Open, so you might say his season is starting now.

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Can he start it with his third career title? It will mean beating a guy he hasn’t beaten before. Rublev is 3-0 against the Brit, though Draper did take a set when they met in New York in 2023, and he pushed the Russian to 7-5 in the third when they played in Madrid in 2022.

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Rublev has had an eventful week. He edged Alex De Minaur 10-8 in a third-set tiebreaker, but it took him eight match points to do it. Then he edged Felix Auger Aliassime 7-5 in a third-set tiebreaker, in a match that finished with a whirlwind of fast-paced play and go-for-broke shots.

Will all of this leave Rublev with little left in the tank? Or will it leave him feeling confident to the point of being bullet-proof? He’s 16-10 in finals, and we’ve seen him both thrive and fizzle on these types of stages in the past.

Rublev has the better head-to-head, he’s ranked higher, he has more experience in finals. But Draper has the difference-making shot, that hammering, hooking lefty serve. I’m going to say it will be enough. Winner: Draper