Green Group
- Novak Djokovic (+140)
- Jannik Sinner (+500)
- Stefanos Tsitsipas (+1400)
- Holger Rune (+2000)
It’s hard to picture a scenario in which Djokovic doesn’t come out of this group. He comes into this event on an 18-match winning streak, all of which came on hard courts. Also, while indoor and outdoor conditions can be wildly different, Djokovic showed the world that it doesn’t matter to him by winning the Rolex Paris Masters last week. In fact, he's now won 80% of his indoor matches for his career.
On top of that, Djokovic is a combined 17-5 against the other players in this group. He has never lost to Sinner and he has won nine in a row against Tsitsipas, after starting his career 2-3 against the Greek. Rune is actually 2-2 against Djokovic, but the Serb did just win a tight three-set match against the 20-year-old in Paris.
As for the other spot, I like Tsitsipas’ chances of getting to the semifinals. Sinner has been the best player of the remaining three for most of the season, but Tsitsipas is 5-2 against the Italian in their head-to-head history. And while Sinner did win their most recent matchup, in Rotterdam, Tsitsipas has flashed some impressive form over the last few months. I think his combination of a big serve and huge forehand gives him the edge over the other two. Sinner has made a lot of strides when it comes to proving he can win big matches this year, but the ATP Finals are as big as it gets outside of majors. I just wouldn’t be surprised if he plays a loose game or two on his own serve, and that ultimately does him in against Tsitsipas. After all, the pressure on Sinner will be hard to imagine with this being a home tournament for him.
As for Rune, I don’t have much faith in him right now. He has looked a lot better in recent weeks, but he’s a long ways away from the player he was at the end of 2022 and the start of 2023.