ATP Indian Wells final preview: Roger Federer v. Juan Martin del Potro

UPDATE: Juan Martin del Potro defeated Roger Federer 6-4, 6-7 (8), 7-6 (2) to win the BNP Paribas Open. It was his first ever Masters 1000 title. Watch the match point here:

In my men’s-draw preview from two weeks ago, this is the final I ended up forecasting. I couldn’t have been the only one: Federer was the top seed and the recently re-crowned world No. 1, and he had yet to lose a match in 2018; Del Potro was coming off his biggest title in five years, in Acapulco. With Novak Djokovic ailing and Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka missing, Delpo seemed to be the leading candidate for the Most Likely to Give Rog a Run award in Indian Wells.

With the ATP’s Top 10 healing itself, and no Next Gen stars flying up the rankings at the moment, Federer vs. Del Potro may be the best men’s match-up we have for the foreseeable future, a fact that gives this match a little extra significance. Federer leads their head to head 18-6, and he has won five of their last six meetings. But Delpo won the big one, at the US Open last year, and he led their two most recent matches by a set before Federer turned the tables.

Tennis Channel's John Zinni breaks down Sunday's finals at Indian Wells in the Daily Mix:

Of the two men, Del Potro had the quicker and easier semifinal, a straight-setter over Milos Raonic. The two and a half hours Federer needed to subdue Borna Coric could slow him on Sunday. That means he’ll likely try to go for the two-set kill, which in turn means he’ll need to get off to a better, more assertive start than he has against Delpo of late. That’s what happened the last time they played in Indian Wells, in 2012, when Federer won 6-3, 6-2 in the quarterfinals.

Since their latest meeting, in Basel last fall, Del Potro has embraced the limitations that his repaired wrist has imposed on him, and found ways to use them to his advantage—“My game has changed,” he says. He plays positional tennis with his backhand, looks to use his drop shot and volley more, and, of course, relies on his serve and forehand to do the lion’s share of the damage. It feels as if Delpo has been on something of a mission this week to take his comeback to a higher plane. His ranking is back in the Top 10, and there are openings in the Top 5; now would be seem to be the perfect time to break through and win his first Masters 1000 title. Delpo dug deep to beat his countryman Leonardo Mayer and Germany’s Phillip Kohlschreiber.

Match point from Del Potro vs. Raonic:

Federer, of course, is another step—or three—up in quality. How will Delpo’s more varied tactics fare against the Swiss? Will we see more chess-match rallies? More important, will Del Potro actually want to engage in more of those rallies with the more versatile Federer? When he’s had success against him in the past, Del Potro has done it by knocking Federer back with pace. From Federer’s standpoint, with the No. 1 ranking safe and sound for the time being, will he have the same motivation that Delpo does?

In my preview, I picked Federer to beat Del Potro in the final. The last time I switched sides and went against Federer was before the 2017 Wimbledon final, and we know how that turned out. But I’m going to switch sides again anyway, and take Delpo. The ATP needs a real, live, healthy rivalry at the top; maybe he can give us one.

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