ATP Indian Wells: No former champions; a sneak preview of the future? Breaking down the men's BNP Paribas Open draw

WATCH: Jannik Sinner, the No. 10 seed at Indian Wells, has won four titles over the last 12 months.

For the first time in at least 18 years, there will be no former champions in the Indian Wells men’s draw. Like virtually every other tournament of note during that time, the BNP Paribas Open has been dominated by Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. From 2004 to 2017, the Big 3 won 13 of 14 titles in the desert. The two players who succeeded them as champions, Juan Martin del Potro and Dominic Thiem, aren’t here, either. Which means we have a clean slate, and perhaps a sneak preview of what the men’s game will look like in the coming years.

First Quarter

For the moment, the ATP’s future begins with newly-minted US Open champion Daniil Medvedev, who is ranked No. 2 and seeded No. 1. It’s hard to believe, but the last time we were in Indian Wells, Medvedev had yet to make his rise into the game’s elite. Seeded 14th in 2019, he lost in the third round to Filip Krajinovic 6-3, 6-2. Things have obviously changed a lot for him since then, but not his draw: If Medvedev and Krajinovic win their openers, they’ll face each other again. I’m sure the Serb isn’t counting on a repeat of his easy win from two years ago.

Medvedev says he’s enthusiastic about building on his summer momentum for the rest of 2021, and his draw gives him an opportunity to gain ground on the absent Novak Djokovic. The highest seed in the Russian’s half of this section is No. 16 Reilly Opelka. The highest two seeds in the other half are Hubert Hurkacz, who nearly beat Medvedev in Toronto this year, and Denis Shapovalov.

Also here: Sebastian Korda, who will play either Frances Tiafoe or Benoit Paire to start.

First-round match to watch: Tiafoe vs. Paire

Semifinalist: Medvedev

Second Quarter

The top seed in this section, Andrey Rublev, was among the tour’s hottest players through the first half of 2021. But it’s the second seed, Casper Ruud, who has had that distinction since. The 22-year-old native of Norway and former clay-court specialist just won a title on hard courts in San Diego, and just cracked the Top 10 for the first time. Indian Wells would seem to be a chance for him to put a stamp of legitimacy on his season at a big tournament. For all of his success in 2021, Ruud hasn’t been past the third round in the last three majors.

The seeds in Rublev’s half are Dusan Lajovic, Cameron Norrie and Roberto Bautista Agut; the seeds in Ruud’s half are Lloyd Harris, Dan Evans and Diego Schwartzman.

Semifinalist: Ruud

Third Quarter

This is a Next Gen-heavy quarter: Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini are the top two seeds, and Jannik Sinner, Taylor Fritz and Carlos Alcaraz follow a little ways behind. A bit further back from them are two young Americans who have shown promise this summer, Jenson Brooksby and Brandon Nakashima. (If Brooksby wins his opener, he’ll play Zverev.) This has been a semi-breakthrough year for Zverev and Berrettini; the Italian made his first major final, while Zverev won Olympic gold and a Masters 1000 in Cincinnati. We’ll see if either can add their first Indian Wells title to their 2021 résumés.

First-round match to watch: Andy Murray vs. Adrian Mannarino

Potential third-round match to watch: Zverev vs. Alcaraz

Semifinalist: Zverev

Fourth Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas has had his ups and downs this year, with his results and with the fans. Will the crowds in Indian Wells forgive him for his bathroom-break sins at the US Open? Things can only get better for the Greek in the desert. The last time Tsitsipas was here, he lost badly to Felix Auger Aliassime in the second round. He may get a chance to improve on that result this year; if Tsitsipas can reach the quarterfinals, he may find himself across the net from FAA again.

Wild card of Interest: Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune. That’s a mouthful of a name, but it will be interesting to see how Djokovic’s first-round US Open challenger does in the desert. Rune starts with a qualifier, and then would play Cristian Garin.

Semifinalist: Auger-Aliassime

Semifinals: Medvedev d. Ruud; Zverev d. Auger Aliassime

Final: Medvedev d. Zverev