Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
As you would expect, the Spaniard leads the Italian in their head to head by a solid margin, 7-3. But ever since Fognini broke through against Rafa in a chaotic three-setter in Rio in 2015, this has become something of a rivalry. Fognini went on to win their next two matches that year—one in Barcelona, where Nadal is a nine-time champion, and an even more unlikely victory during the U.S. Open. At Flushing Meadows, Fognini came back from two sets down and put on that season’s most outrageous display of shotmaking fireworks.
Fognini’s good hands, his two-handed backhand, and his “What, me worry?” attitude all work against Nadal. He can take Rafa’s topspin on the rise or the short hop, and he can hit the through the court from either wing. Even Nadal’s straight-set win over Fognini on Barcelona clay last spring involved a last-ditch comeback from the Italian that nearly netted him the second set. But Rafa held him off then, and he’s won eight of the nine sets he’s played in Key Biscayne. Winner: Nadal
Roger Federer vs. Nick Kyrgios
Indian Wells’ loss is Miami’s gain. The south Florida tournament and its U.S. television partner, ESPN, couldn’t ask for a better Friday night, prime-time TV throwdown. Last time it was Kyrgios who couldn’t make it to the show, this time it was Federer who nearly bowed out early. The Swiss admitted that he was lucky to save match points and sneak past a hot-hitting Tomas Berdych in a third-set tiebreaker in the quarters.
