Every day starting Tuesday at this week’s Rolex Paris Masters could be crucial, as 11 different players battle it out for the last two spots in the eight-man field at the Nitto ATP Finals in London.
Six players—Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer (who withdrew from the Paris event), Daniil Medvedev, Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas—have already qualified for London. The last two players will come from 11 of the 12 players in the No. 7 to No. 18 range in the Race To London standings—Kei Nishikori, who’s currently No. 13 in the standings, has already ended his season due to a right elbow injury.
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The frontrunners for the last two spots are Alexander Zverev and Matteo Berrettini, currently No. 7 and No. 8—respectively—on the Race to London. If either of them makes the final in Paris, they’ll qualify for London outright—but it’s only possible for one of them to make the final given they’re on the same half of the draw. Either one could also qualify if they lose before the final, depending on other players’ results.
The next four players in the standings—No. 9 Roberto Bautista Agut, No. 10 Gael Monfils, No. 11 David Goffin and No. 12 Fabio Fognini—can qualify for London outright by winning the title in Paris. They could also qualify without winning the title, depending on how they and other players do.
Diego Schwartzman, who’s currently No. 14 in the Race To London, needs to reach the final in Paris just to have a shot at London, while No. 15 Stan Wawrinka, No. 16 Karen Khachanov, No. 17 John Isner and No. 18 Alex de Minaur need to win the title in Paris just to have a shot at London.
None of the 11 remaining contenders for London are playing in Paris on Monday, so look for them to start taking the court at the Masters 1000 event on Tuesday. Every single match will matter—pre-quarterfinal losses for anyone but Zverev and Berrettini would end their campaign for London.
Though they might be focused more on Paris and London right now, two of the ATP’s most talented young stars made major breakthroughs on the ATP rankings on Monday, with Berrettini breaking the Top 10 and De Minaur debuting in the Top 20 after deep runs in Vienna and Basel, respectively.
Berrettini, who made the semifinals of the 500-level event in Vienna, falling to Thiem, rose from No. 11 to No. 9 on the new rankings. He’s the fourth Italian man ever to reach the Top 10 after Adriano Panatta, Corrado Barazzutti and Fognini, who peaked at No. 4, No. 7 and No. 9, respectively.
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De Minaur, who reached the equal-biggest final of his career at the 500-level event in Basel, falling to Federer, rose from No. 28 to No. 18 this week, surging past his previous career-high of No. 24.
Other notable ranking movers included American Reilly Opelka rising from No. 37 to a new career-high of No. 31 after reaching the Basel semifinals, and Italian teenager Jannik Sinner making his Top 100 debut, rising from No. 101 to No. 93 after reaching the second round of Vienna - the 18-year-old had a breakthrough week in Antwerp the week before, reaching his very first ATP semifinal.
Elsewhere, Nishikori and Kevin Anderson—who are both currently off the tour due to injury - saw notable ranking drops after their points from last year in Vienna fell off. Nishikori, who made the final of Vienna last year but has been off the tour since the US Open this year with an elbow injury, dipped from No. 8 to No. 11, his first time outside the Top 10 since 2018. And Anderson, who won Vienna last year but has been off the tour since Wimbledon due to a knee injury, fell from No. 21 to No. 45.
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