Roger Federer vs. Andy Murray
Head-to-head: Murray leads 10-8
London is a championship crosswalk where two of tennis’ smoothest movers keep bumping into each other. This is their third London meeting in the last five months: Federer down-shifted into all-court attack in roaring back for a four-set win in the Wimbledon final in July before an emotive Murray scored a rousing sweep in the Olympic final weeks later. Four of their last nine meetings have come in London.
Federer has only dropped serve twice in three tournament matches; he lost the lone break-point he faced in his first service game of the last set against Juan Martin del Potro today. The six-time tournament champion is comfortable at the O2 Arena, winning 12 of his last 13 matches. Federer faces a quick turnaround in trying to shrug off the three-set loss to the powerful Del Potro and gear up for U.S. Open champion Murray, whose court coverage, anticipation and physicality create a completely different type of challenge.
London resident Murray is energized by the home crowd and often plays some of his most spirited tennis in the city. Murray will use his versatile two-handed backhand to target Federer’s one-hander, which let him down at times vs. Del Potro. Federer committed 22 backhand errors (by my count) today, and will need to be much more precise against Murray, who also owns lethal one-handed slice. Look for Federer to hit his backhand down the line early and step around the backhand at times and aggressively attack with his forehand to try to move Murray.
Murray has never been one to mind the gap when facing Federer. The Swiss has used the short-angled chip as a form of tennis torment for years, dragging opponents forward to awkward sports in pursuit of that slinky backhand. Murray can counter that play because he’s so quick off the mark, he’s highly creative in unsettled situations and can bamboozle opponents with finesse around the service box.
It’s encouraging to see Federer use his net skills throughout this tournament, but he knows he must close with urgency against Murray, who is a sniper off the pass though he tends to predictably play the forehand pass crosscourt.
Both men have shrewd court sense and both can dictate with the first serve. Murray has improved his second serve and he's the more dangerous returner. If Federer is hitting his spots with his first serve, I think he’ll create enough mid-court opportunities to finish with his forehand. This is absolutely a match Murray can win if he engages Federer in longer rallies and can break down his backhand. But Federer tends to play with more aggression and ambition indoors and gets the edge in what could be a spirited thriller.
Winner: Federer in three sets
