ATP World Tour Finals Preview: The Final

Roger Federer vs. Novak Djokovic
Head-to-head: Federer leads 16-12

Novak Djokovic treated the media to post-press conference chocolates on Sunday. Roger Federer is brand ambassador for Lindt chocolatier. The world's top two should also satisfy your sweet tooth for shot-making when they face off in a mouth-watering ATP World Tour Finals title match.

World No. 1 Djokovic returns to the final for the first time since he won the year-end championships in 2008, while six-time champion Federer is playing for his third consecutive title in London. The second-ranked Swiss has won four of the seven finals between the pair. They've split four meetings this year, with Federer scoring a four-set win in the Wimbledon semis and a straight-sets sweep in the Cincinnati final. Both Djokovic and Federer exhibited resilience rallying from semifinal deficits today.  

Down a break early to Andy Murray, Federer turned the tables and began playing points with a more authoritative purpose. Murray was a bit too predictable on second serve, repeatedly targeting Federer's one-handed backhand. Federer began to feast on these second serves, winning 20 of 35 such points and converting all three break points he earned. Djokovic fought back from a set down against Juan Martin del Potro with a declarative serving performance, as the top seed lost just two points on serve in the final set of his 4-6, 6-3, 6-2 triumph.  

Though he's playing his third match in as many days, the indoor court should favor Federer, who is the more skillful volleyer and is more comfortable closing in the front court. The 17-time Grand Slam champion has won 13 of his last 14 matches at this tournament and should carry confidence from his dismissal of Djokovic in Cincy. All the elements were in place for a thriller, but Federer played with buzz-kill brilliance in that encounter, winning 16 of the first 21 points in a 6-0, 7-6 triumph that snapped Djokovic’s 15-match hard-court winning streak.

This time, Djokovic should be empowered by his undefeated run to the final. The Australian Open champion has won 20 of his last 22 matches and played with conviction in critical stages against del Potro. Djokovic will need to spread the court against Federer. Look for the Serbian to hit his favored backhand down the line to prevent Federer from shading to his backhand corner. The crowd figures to strongly favor the seven-time Wimbledon winner, so Djokovic, who is usually much more emotionally expressive on court, must weather inevitable shifts with concentration and positive body language.

Federer is the sharper server and more aggressive all-court player. Djokovic is the world's most dangerous returner and a better defender. It makes for a tough call, but if Federer is dotting the edges of the box with first serves, he can take charge early in rallies, apply his skills moving forward, and finish with his forehand to shorten points and neutralize Djokovic's defensive prowess. An imposing front-runner, Federer has won six of his seven year-end championship final appearances (the lone loss came to David Nalbandian in a fifth-set tie breaker in 2005, Shanghai) and aims to take charge from the outset.  

“I wasn't quite sure what to expect from Novak this week. I thought he was a bit subdued vs. Tsonga; now he's playing really well and that's what he showed again today,” Federer told ESPN’s Brad Gilbert after his semifinal win over Murray. “I think I'm in for a tough match; he's playing physical stuff, he's moving well, I've got to take it to him. I'm going to take my chances. We've both had great seasons so it's nice we're meeting in the final.”  

When you see Federer flick a half-volley backhand winner from the baseline that left even Murray shaking his head in disbelief, or deaden a drop volley winner in the final game that froze the Scot to earn match point, it's a reminder that some of the Swiss' most dazzling skills—prescient court sense and an unsettling ability to alter spins, speeds and depth of his drives—cannot be quantified.  

Federer has played some of his most inspired tennis indoors, but Djokovic is undefeated in this tournament and looks undeterred by challenges. The world No. 1 withstood del Potro's massive forehand and lifted his level of play as the semifinal progressed. A fast start is crucial: The winner of the first set has prevailed in 10 of their last 11 meetings.

Djokovic has displayed his tenacity and problem-solving skill, and is more balanced off both forehand and backhand. He can play the court straight up, whereas Federer will be looking to run around his one-handed backhand to dictate play with his forehand. As much as I respect Federer’s form, the fire he showed taming Murray, and his history of big-match brilliance at the season-ending event, I believe Djokovic will find a way to work out a win in what should be a tight test.

The winner: Djokovic in three sets