ATP World Tour Finals Previews: Day 3

Tomas Berdych vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Head-to-head: Berdych leads 3-1

This will be the third meeting in a month between the two lower-ranked players in Group A. Berdych won them both, in straight sets outdoors in Shanghai and in three when they met indoors in the Stockholm final. But that doesn’t mean the Berd man will be singing the same tune again. In the second of those matches, Tsonga was the better player for long stretches, but couldn’t close it out in the second set.  

Since that Stockholm surrender, Tsonga has hired a new coach, Roger Rasheed, and he came out in his first match in London, against Djokovic, with a new plan: Patience. Yes, in the early stages Jo played with more margin for error, and less questionable derring-do, than usual. He tried to let the match come to him. The first set almost did. We’ll see if he goes about things the same way in this one.  

As for Berdych, he fulfilled all expectations in his own first match, against Murray. He hit big, and well, in winning the first set, but was outmaneuvered in the second set and choked in the final game.  

Will this be a case of he who chokes last chokes worst? Tsonga comes in after a disappointing performance in Paris, so I would say the edge in form goes to Berdych. But Jo, who made the final here last year, beat the Czech in straight sets along the way. If the ball at the O2 is again bouncing low, as some say, that could trouble the taller, more upright Berdych. How much does each player want to progress to the semis? Does Berdych already have one eye on the Davis Cup final next week? Both players, in theory, should be desperate for this one. The loser is almost surely not making it to the final four.  

Winner: Berdych in three

Novak Djokovic vs. Andy Murray
Head-to-head: Djokovic leads 9-7

On the one hand, we should have a good idea what we’re going to get in this, the most marquee of all of this year’s round-robin matches. Djokovic and Murray have played six times already in 2012. We can guess from those contests that we’ll see long, tiring, sometimes brilliant rallies. We’ll see multiple shifts in momentum. We’ll each player (Murray especially) swivel between the passive and the aggressive. We’ll see seemingly impossible defensive maneuvers that drive the other player into a blind rage. And we’ll see much frustration vented, and energy spent, before all is said and done.  

On the other hand, while we have an idea of what the process will be like, we don’t have a clue as to the result. Muzz and the Djoker have split their six 2012 matches 3-3. Each has won a five-setter at a Grand Slam, and each has handed the other a quick straight-set defeat along the way. You won’t get far going on form, either: Each fought their way through difficult, sometimes scratchy opening matches. As for motivation, neither lacks for it. Djokovic is looking to end his second No. 1 season on a better note than the first, while Murray is looking for his second title at his third hometown tournament of 2012. Each man looked exceptionally fired up in their Monday matches. The conditions? They won’t tell you much. Unless I’ve forgotten and the roof was closed for their Aussie semi this year, the two have never played indoors.  

So let’s skip the predictions for the moment and move on to the match’s potential significance. While it is “just” a round-robin encounter, there’s a sense that these two are reaching a critical stage in their rivalry—Murray, in other words, is beginning to challenge the higher-ranked Djokovic. He beat him at the Open, and he held match points when they met in Shanghai last month. They’re sure to meet in important situations, maybe Grand Slam final situations, next year, and this one could set the tone.  

Winner: Djokovic in three