ATP World Tour Finals Previews: Day 5

Andy Murray vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
Head-to-head: Murray leads 6-1

Andy Murray let a big one get away the other day, surrendering a one-set lead and psychological control of his match with Djokovic—a lapse that enabled Djokovic to wriggle (or, rather, blast) his way out of the desperate situation to win, thereby becoming the only player in his group with a 2-0 record.  

Tsonga, by contrast, is 0-2. He was hammered in straight sets by Djokovic in his first match, then he ran out of steam in his clash with Berdych, losing the third set 6-1. You have to wonder, why should Tsonga even bother to show up? There’s just single scenario by which he can qualify—he and Djokovic must win in straights—and the scenarios abound.  

Thus, Murray is in an excellent position to ensure his own qualification (behind Djokovic), and you have to believe that he’s relishing the opportunity to earn a second life. In how many tournaments can you lose to Djokovic, and then get a crack at him again down the line?  

Given how enthusiastically people have been touting the emerging Djokovic vs. Murray rivalry, a rematch would undoubtedly be great for the game. But. . . like all other players, Tsonga has pride. And apart from any financial incentive to win at least one match, the Frenchman is in an excellent position to play the role of the spoiler, or buzzkill.  

Murray’s superior head-to-head record provides some insulation against that plot twist. Tsonga hasn’t beaten him since their first-round clash at the 2008 Australian Open. Three of Murray’s last four wins against Tsonga were on grass, but the more promising numbers for the Scot were generated in their hard-court battles. Apart from that Australian Open result, Murray has three hard-court wins—all without the loss of a set.  

Murray’s increasing willingness to step in and crunch the ball, coupled with his quickness and considerable defensive skills, will make Tsonga’s life tough in roughly the same way that Djokovic will make Berdych’s time on court a trial.  

The winner: Murray in two sets.

Novak Djokovic vs. Tomas Berdych
Head-to-head: Djokovic leads 10-1

Berdych’s lone win over Djokovic occurred at Wimbledon in 2010, and if you didn’t know better, you might think the Czech is still being punished for being a co-conspirator in one of the most god-awful performances ever turned in by the world No. 1. But that was close to the puzzling low point of Djokovic’s interrupted developmental journey, and shortly before he underwent a transformation into the lantern-jawed, implacable, insatiable beast he is today. And when you read Berdych’s comments on this match-up, it doesn’t exactly stimulate you to look for another upset.  

“I don’t like (my) mathematics at all,” said Berdych, who is 1-1 in group play while Djokovic is 2-0. His big problem is that he already lost to the other high seed in his group, Andy Murray (see below), who’s on track to join Djokovic in the semis.  

Berdych went on, “I will try to play tennis, and that’s it. I will try my best. But Novak just [has] shown how great he’s playing right now and that he deserve to be [the] No. 1 player in the world. It’s a huge challenge for me. But the other hand, he already has two wins, so let’s see what’s going to be in that last match.”  

That last sentence may hold the key to Berdych’s hopes. The only player with two wins under his belt, Djokovic is a good position to qualify. And that may take the edge off his determination, if not his game. But I wouldn’t bet on that happening.  

The main problem for Berdych comes down to a single word: Defense. Djokovic’s defense is so good that Berdych has to be playing out of his gourd to blow the ball by the Serb often enough. At the same time, Berdych doesn’t move as well or play with as forcing and aggressive a posture as Djokovic. When Djokovic applies pressure, he takes offensive capacity away from Berdych. And when Berdych is in a position to dictate, Djokovic can absorb the punches better than any other player save Rafael Nadal.  

The other significant factor is consistency. Djokovic is a model of disciplined, focused execution. Berdych can be moody and prone to dramatic swings in efficiency and/or attention. Berdych has retired with injury in two of the last four hard-court matches these two have played (Cincinnati and Dubai); in their most recent clash, Djokovic battered Berdych in the semis of Shanghai, 6-3, 6-4.  

Instead of coming out flat, I think Djokovic will use this match to tune up his game and whet his appetite for the semis (a good idea, given his slow start against Murray).  

The winner: Djokovic in two sets.