Aussie Open Semifinal Best Bet: Djokovic vs. Federer, under 33.5 games

All figures from Draftkings Sportsbook

Once the semifinals arrive, Novak Djokovic on Rod Laver Arena is virtually the same as Rafael Nadal on Philippe Chatrier. Djokovic is 14-0 in the final four stage at Melbourne, winning seven titles since 2008. He enters his matchup againsta visibly hobbled Roger Federer as an astronomical, yet sensible, -715 favorite. A $100 bet on Djokovic wins you $14, not worth the risk unless your pockets run deep.

Initially Djokovic opened as a -835 favorite, but Federer fans choosing to light their money on fire have since shifted the line. For perspective, Nadal was a -714 favorite per Oddsportal.com in last year’s French Open semifinal. Nadal won that match 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, for a total game count of 27. Keep in mind, Federer was not injured prior to this match.

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We are going to take under 33.5 total games for a generous -114. With those odds, a 7-6, 6-4, 6-4 Djokovic victory wins you this bet.

It seems like there are three options here:

Djokovic crushes Federer and you win the bet.

Federer withdraws prior to the match and you get your money back.

Federer somehow recovers and plays Djokovic closer than 7-6, 6-4, 6-4—which would imply a third Federer Australian Open miracle—and would be worth losing a little bit of money.