Australian Open Final Best Bets: Three Djokovic vs. Thiem plays

All figures from DraftKings Sportsbook

Before you start feeling too badly for Dominic Thiem, coming off two grueling four-setters and with one less day of rest before Sunday's Australian Open final, keep in mind that he’s beaten Novak Djokovic in four of their last five meetings. Thiem’s unrelenting pace, combined with his Rafa-like ability to create angles out of nowhere, has proven to be the most effective anti-Djokovic potion on the market.

That being said, with a -420 moneyline in favor of the Serb, it’s difficult to find value on the surface. So let’s dig a little deeper.

Betting the under in a match featuring arguably the greatest returner of all time might be unwise, but eight total breaks is just too many to fathom, especially when factoring in Djokovic’s new and improved serve. If Thiem and Djokovic play just one tiebreak set with no breaks, this bet is as good as gold.

Djokovic on Rod Laver Arena is not Rafael Nadal on Court Philippe Chatrier, but he’s not far off. He's a combined 15-0 in semis and finals in Melbourne.

In the 2013 Australian Open Final, Djokovic defeated Andy Murray by seven total games. In 2015, he beat Murray by nine games. In 2016, he beat Murray by 10 games. Last year, he beat Nadal by 10 games. With the moneyline is a little too steep, let’s bet on history here for an even return on investment.

This is obviously a risky bet, but if you had to guess, wouldn’t you pick Djokovic to win in four sets? The Serb is the clear favorite, but Thiem is playing too well to be straight-setted by anyone, including Djokovic. Djokovic is +145 to win in straights, and that feels a tad disrespectful towards the Austrian. Thiem’s confidence should be high, and while he received less rest after his semi, he’s still one of the fittest people on the planet. Djokovic in four just feels right.