Australian Open Final Preview: Djokovic vs. Nadal, seven years later

In the case of this era’s ATP tour, it’s probably time to retire the term “changing of the guard.” By now, after more than a decade of domination by the Big 3—Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer—it’s clear there will only be a “retiring of the guard” at some point down the road. Last week in Australia, 20-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas knocked out the 37-year-old Federer in what felt like a symbolic moment of generational turnover. But there was nothing anyone could do about Djokovic, 31, or Nadal, 32. The ATP’s No. 1 and 2 players have been head and shoulders above the rest of the field in Melbourne, and they’ll face off for the 53rd time in the Australian Open final on Sunday.

For all of their many meetings, though, this will be the first time Djokovic and Nadal play each other a Grand Slam final since the 2014 French Open. While Djokovic leads their overall head to head 27-25, Nadal has won their last two major finals, at Roland Garros in 2014 and the US Open in 2013. The last time they met at the Australian Open, in 2012, Djokovic won a six-hour epic.

It’s a rivalry, in short, that has gone through many reversals in momentum over the course of its 13-year history. Who has that momentum right now?

If you look at the last nine months, it’s Djokovic; he won the last two Slams, he’s No. 1 in the world, and he edged Nadal in the best and most important match of 2018, 10-8 in the fifth set of the Wimbledon semifinals. He’s also coming off a straight-set beat down of Lucas Pouille, and has looked as difficult-to-beat as ever Down Under, where he’s a six-time champion.

But if you narrow your focus just to the last fortnight, Nadal may actually have more momentum. He has served as well, played with as much aggression, and projected as much self-confidence as he ever has in his career. Tsitsipas described Rafa’s game in their semifinal as “taking tennis to another dimension.” Nadal was also just a few points from upending Djokovic in that Wimbledon epic last year.

All of which means this should be an excellent match, and it should be close. Djokovic is playing as well as ever in Australia, and Nadal may be playing better than ever. The question is: Is it better enough? Is it better enough to overcome Djokovic’s general edge over Rafa on surfaces other than clay? Last year at Wimbledon, Nadal threw some of his best and most aggressive tennis—not unlike the kind he’s played in Australia—at Djokovic, but it was Djokovic who won anyway, because (a) his game is better suited to faster surfaces; and (b) both guys knew it.

Will something similar be the case this time around? One interesting, and perhaps crucial, game-within-the-game will be the battle between Nadal’s improved serve and Djokovic’s all-time-great return.

The stakes are obviously high. If Nadal wins, he pulls to within two majors of Federer’s record 20 and becomes the first man since Rod Laver to win each of the Slams at least twice. If Djokovic wins, he pulls to within two of Nadal’s current total of 17. Afterward, there may be talk of a calendar-year Grand Slam for the winner.

Who will feel the historical pressure more? Twice in the past, including once against Djokovic, Nadal has been up a break in the fifth set of an Australian Open final, only to lose the match. How will he react if he’s in a similar position again?

Seven years ago, Djokovic and Nadal played a final that was lauded for its brilliance, but not for its length. Judging by the way they’ve been playing this time around, we should get more of the brilliance, without quite as much of the length. The Serb and the Spaniard have scaled some of the highest peaks in tennis history together; it won’t be a surprise if they take us up there again on Sunday. The guard remains unchanged.

Winner: Djokovic

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